Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MINOT AND
GARRISON...BUT AS THE MODELS ADVERTISED THE FRONT HAS STAGNATED
OVER THE BISMARCK AREA RESULTING IN A TILTED FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN. THE STORMS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT THE LINE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH. GOOD CAPE
AND SHEAR INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A K INDEX OF 35 OR
BETTER ALSO POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. MOST LIKELY
SOME STORMS WILL PROMPT A SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORY...BUT IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS...MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING. THERE IS ALSO CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WHICH IS
MOVING EAST...SO EVEN THOUGH THE DEWPOINTS AT WILLISTON AND
DICKINSON HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 50 DEGREES...CONTINUE TO SEE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE WEST TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AGAIN...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. RIDGING ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO ALLOW UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOWS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FOR OFF AND ON
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WITH LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...BASES SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH. WEDNESDAY THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. STRONG WEST
WINDS WITH STRONG GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NDZ020-022-023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051-141100-
OLIVER-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010 /847 PM MDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031-032-141100-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-MCLEAN-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010 /847 PM MDT TUE JUL 13 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AROUND PENNY SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
505 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HEAVY RAIN       14 S STEELE             46.65N 99.92W
07/13/2010  M2.20 INCH       KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. 2.20 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

&&

VROLLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW STREETER           46.73N 99.46W
07/13/2010  M3.70 INCH       KIDDER             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3.70 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 45 MINUTES RECORDED AT ANOTHER
            LOCATION AT THE GRASSLAND RESEARCH CENTER.

&&

VROLLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NDZ023-140015-
WELLS-
619 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL WELLS COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FESSENDEN BY 625 PM CDT...
  HAMBERG BY 640 PM CDT...
  BREMEN BY 645 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

SIMOSKO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NDZ034-042-045-140030-
GRANT ND-MORTON ND-SIOUX ND-
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN SIOUX...SOUTHERN MORTON AND
EASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT/630 PM MDT/...

AT 540 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RALEIGH...OR 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BISMARCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FLASHER...
  BREIEN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HEINERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
717 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MONTPELIER          46.74N 98.59W
07/13/2010                   STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST 70 MPH. TREE UPROOTED, WOODEN BLDG DESTROYED, GRAIN
            BIN TIPPED OVER, AND CROP DAMAGE...FLATTENED, STRAIGHT
            LINE WINDS LIKELY.

&&

KSIMOSKO