River Flood Warning 73, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW MOST OF THE RAIN
SITUATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ALMOST DUE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH
ROTATING INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THE INCLUSION OF SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CREATE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR ENHANCE THE ONGOING FLOODING AND
WILL CANCEL THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DROP IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING ONTARIO LOW AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. BOTH THE 24.00Z NAM AND GFS BRING SOME
GOOD PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 8 AND 20 PVU/S IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AT
18Z SATURDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 UBARS/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. NOT A LOT OF DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE DEPARTING ONTARIO LOW AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITH IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE MAINTAINING THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST...DID BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN A LITTLE FASTER
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH
THE GFS AND 24.03Z SREFS SUGGESTING ANY RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE THE
NAM INDICATES THE ENTIRE AREA COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. FOR
NOW HAVE HELD ON TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM BUT
DID CUT THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 50 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BUILD IN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY AND PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT DID HOLD
ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW STILL CLOSE TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE 24.00Z ECMWF IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
THIS COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR MONDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z GFS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AT BOTH TAF
SITES...IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS ARE LIKELY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND...LOOK FOR A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CEILINGS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS SHOULD
CLIMB TO VFR EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAUSING SOME
CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ/BOYNE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-251100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
540 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. PEOPLE LIVING
NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. AS ALL THE WATER MOVES
DOWN THE RIVERS...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PEOPLE LIVING NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS OR OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS ARE
URGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
912 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST CONCORD            44.14N  92.90W
09/24/2010  M2.72 INCH       DODGE              MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DODGE CENTER AWOS       44.03N  92.83W
09/24/2010  M2.50 INCH       DODGE              MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRING VALLEY 1 NW      43.70N  92.40W
09/24/2010  M2.38 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ELGIN 2SSW              44.10N  92.27W
09/24/2010  M2.18 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROCHESTER CASCADE CR    44.03N  92.48W
09/24/2010  M2.04 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WABASHA                 44.39N  92.05W
09/24/2010  M2.36 INCH       WABASHA            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       THEILMAN 1SSW           44.28N  92.19W
09/24/2010  M2.32 INCH       WABASHA            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE CITY-COOP          44.43N  92.28W
09/24/2010  M2.22 INCH       WABASHA            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE CITY               44.45N  92.26W
09/24/2010  M2.19 INCH       WABASHA            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OWEN 2N                 44.98N  90.55W
09/24/2010  M2.34 INCH       CLARK              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEILLSVILLE 3SW         44.53N  90.64W
09/24/2010  M2.08 INCH       CLARK              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BLACK RIVER FALLS       44.38N  90.84W
09/24/2010  M2.29 INCH       JACKSON            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MATHER 3NW              44.17N  90.35W
09/24/2010  M2.08 INCH       JACKSON            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TAYLOR                  44.32N  91.12W
09/24/2010  M2.00 INCH       JACKSON            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WARRENS 5WSW            44.10N  90.59W
09/24/2010  M2.01 INCH       MONROE             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GAD 6E                  45.14N  90.20W
09/24/2010  M2.88 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       JUMP RIVER 1NW          45.36N  90.80W
09/24/2010  M2.74 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MEDFORD 4NW             45.21N  90.36W
09/24/2010  M2.20 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MEDFORD                 45.13N  90.34W
09/24/2010  M2.00 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OSSEO                   44.58N  91.22W
09/24/2010  M2.05 INCH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   CO-OP OBSERVER
&&

FOR THIS...AND A WEALTH OF OTHER RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT  WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1016 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 AM     FLOOD            DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
09/24/2010                   DODGE              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DODGE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT MANY TOWNSHIP ROADS
            REMAIN CLOSED...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO START OPENING AROUND
            NOON TODAY. STILL SOME DRAINAGE OCCURING FROM FARM
            FIELDS. HWY 24 WEST OUT OF PINE ISLAND REMAINS CLOSED.
            MANY ROAD WASHOUTS AND CULVERT FAILURES ACROSS THE
            COUNTY. HWY 56 IS NOW OPEN AS WELL.

0855 AM     FLOOD            NEILLSVILLE             44.56N 90.59W
09/24/2010                   CLARK              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CLARK COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT MANY ROADS ARE STILL
            CLOSED IN THE COUNTY.

0856 AM     FLOOD            BLACK RIVER FALLS       44.30N 90.85W
09/24/2010                   JACKSON            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN
            CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM ARE
            SLOWLY STARTING TO REOPEN.

0856 AM     FLOOD            AUSTIN                  43.67N 92.97W
09/24/2010                   MOWER              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MOWER COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT A NUMBER OF CITY ROADS
            IN AUSTIN REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. SOME
            APARTMENTS AND BUSINESSES HAVE BEEN EVACUATED IN THE
            OAKLAND PLACE AREA.

0905 AM     FLOOD            ARCADIA                 44.25N 91.49W
09/24/2010                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREMPEALEAU COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT HIGHWAY 93 NORTH
            OUT OF ARCADIA FROM COUNTY ROAD A TO INDEPENDENCE IS
            CLOSED. HIGHWAY 121 FROM INDEPENDENCE TO WHITEHALL IS
            CLOSED. HIGHWAY 95 EAST OUT OF BLAIR TO JACKSON COUNTY IS
            CLOSED.

0915 AM     FLOOD            ZUMBRO FALLS            44.29N 92.43W
09/24/2010                   WABASHA            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WABASHA COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS THAT 14 ROADS REMAIN
            CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

HALBACH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1159 AM     FLOOD            ZUMBRO FALLS            44.29N 92.43W
09/24/2010                   WABASHA            MN   NWS STORM SURVEY

            ZUMBRO RIVER HAS JUST CRESTED AND TWO-THIRDS OF THE TOWN
            IS INUNDATED WITH WATER. HOMES HAVE WATER UP TO THE
            BOTTOM OF FIRST STORY WINDOWS. PROPANE TANKS FLOATING.
            TOWN HAS BEEN EVACUATED SAFELY.

&&

DANB

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