River Flood Warning 65, NWS La Crosse, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
320 AM CDT FRI SEP 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE LOW INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS WEST INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW MOST OF THE RAIN
SITUATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ALMOST DUE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO WITH THE TROUGH
ROTATING INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE
MAINTAINED THE INCLUSION OF SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CREATE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING OR ENHANCE THE ONGOING FLOODING AND
WILL CANCEL THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FLOOD WATCH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
DROP IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING ONTARIO LOW AND AMPLIFY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. BOTH THE 24.00Z NAM AND GFS BRING SOME
GOOD PV ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 8 AND 20 PVU/S IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AT
18Z SATURDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 UBARS/S OF UP GLIDE
ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. NOT A LOT OF DRYING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE DEPARTING ONTARIO LOW AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
WITH IT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE MAINTAINING THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST...DID BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN A LITTLE FASTER
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH
THE GFS AND 24.03Z SREFS SUGGESTING ANY RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE THE
NAM INDICATES THE ENTIRE AREA COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. FOR
NOW HAVE HELD ON TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM BUT
DID CUT THE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 50 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BUILD IN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY AND PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT DID HOLD
ONTO A SMALL RAIN CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW STILL CLOSE TO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE 24.00Z ECMWF IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFY OVER THE REGION MONDAY.
THIS COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE GFS
ALSO SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR MONDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z GFS
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

BLUSTERY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AT BOTH TAF
SITES...IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING FROM NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 30
KNOTS ARE LIKELY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND...LOOK FOR A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CEILINGS TO
STAY IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS SHOULD
CLIMB TO VFR EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING...
ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO DROP DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAUSING SOME
CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...AJ/BOYNE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>