Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
230 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION HAS ASSUMED A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL READY ERUPTED ALONG AND EAST OF
APPROACHING DRYLINE. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES DRYLINE HAS
SLIPPED INTO THE WESTERN ZONES WITH LOWER 30 DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
WEST WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S TD/S IN THE EAST. RUC MESO ANALYSIS
DATA REVEALS SBCAPES OF 2500 TO 3000 WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
UNTIL 800 PM CDT. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY EVOLVE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SURFACE TROUGH AND
DRYLINE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN TACT AND UNCHANGED AS
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ENDING PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DURING THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DAMPEN
SOME DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST DUE TO
RECENT RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                59  81  60  81  61 /  30  20  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  62  82  62  83  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              47  80  57  80  56 /  20  20  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  62  82  63  83  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              56  82  59  82  59 /  20  20  30  20  20
CANYON TX                  59  81  60  81  61 /  20  20  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               63  82  63  82  62 /  40  30  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 51  81  58  80  57 /  20  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  55  82  60  81  60 /  30  30  30  20  20
HEREFORD TX                58  80  59  80  59 /  20  20  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                63  83  63  82  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
PAMPA TX                   62  82  63  81  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                64  85  63  82  62 /  40  30  30  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              65  85  64  83  63 /  40  30  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

21/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-251100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
409 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AS
A RESULT...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS.

WYNNE

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