Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 207 UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH OF THE EXISTING WATCH...REQUIRING ANOTHER
WEATHER WATCH. MORE NEWS WILL FOLLOW.

NUNEZ

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST IMPACT WILL BE FROM THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT WERE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST BUT THE LINE SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY EAST.
KDHT COULD BE AFFECTED AS EARLY AS 01Z-02Z WHILE KAMA AND KGUY MAY
NOT SEE THESE STORMS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY REACH A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE
LAUNCHES ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH A LESSER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...LOW CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND WILL HOLD FAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST AND DRIES OUT THE LOWER LEVELS.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FOCUS WILL BE THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK FRONT THAT EDGED INTO
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLIER TODAY...HAS LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA GIVEN THE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO...A DRYLINE
REMAINED POISED NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO BORDER.

ACCORDING TO THE 18Z KAMA UPPER AIR SOUNDING...MOISTURE HAS DEEPENED
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS TRIMMED THE CAPPING INVERSION FASTER THAN
WHAT THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PREDICTED. WATER VAPOR SHOWED
EVIDENCE OF A SLOW MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE. CONDITIONS FAVOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL
ON THE TIMING OF THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THE REQUIRED DAYTIME HEATING TO INITIATE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATER TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL FORCING ENTERS THE AREA AND
IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD ON MONDAY WHILE THE WESTERN CONUS LOW
LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE EVER PRESENT DRYLINE WILL
COMBINE FOR ANOTHER INTENSE ROUND OF STORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN U.S...ANOTHER
UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIVES ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CHARTERS A
SIMILAR COURSE. WE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY...MODELS
BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH MAY LEAD TO
A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER.

NUNEZ

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY EDGE INTO THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
..RESULTING IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT GREEN UP AND EXPECTED RAINS...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCH OR
WARNING AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLES...AND WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUNEZ

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

10/08

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
457 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS THAT FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
FLASH FLOODING.

SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...
CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TAB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

TXZ005-232230-
LIPSCOMB TX-
505 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR LIPSCOMB COUNTY.

AT 502 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF FOLLETT...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
610 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

OKZ001-232345-
CIMARRON OK-
610 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CIMARRON COUNTY.

AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

JOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

OKZ001-232345-
CIMARRON OK-
614 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR CIMARRON COUNTY.

AT 609 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACK MESA STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

JOHNSON