Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

.AVIATION...
0000 UTC TAFS...COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS CENTERING ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WSR 88D
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE TRACK OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS LOOKS
TO NOT AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA.
PINPOINTING WHEN ANY STORM WILL AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME SO JUST HAVE CB REMARKS IN THROUGH 10-11Z WED.
FURTHER AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE DRYLINE INTO THE
EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY. THUS EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TO STAY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL START
TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE W-NW BY 19-20Z.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010/

DISCUSSION...
TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 11 PM FOR WHOLE FCST AREA SO WILL KEEP SHORT.
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER TO WARRANT DECENT THREAT OF SVR WX THIS
EVENING...STARTING WRN ZONES AND SPREADING EWD. GRIDS HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS WITH AREAL POP QUALIFIERS AND SVR WORDING.

FOR WED...UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL
SEND THE DRYLINE EWD TO ERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON...PSBLY EVEN WRN OK
BEFORE 00Z THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FURTHER ACROSS WRN AND SWRN
ZONES SINCE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE PAST THOSE AREAS. IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT WILL EVEN REMAIN IN OUR FCST AREA AT ALL. FOR NOW...
DECIDED 12Z MODELS WERE STILL A BIT TOO FAST WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
HAVE HELD IT UP ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES WED AFTERNOON WITH SLGT CHC TO
CHC POPS IN THAT AREA. SFC COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE SWD INTO NRN
SECTIONS LATER WED AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS REMAINDER OF PNHDLS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HELD ON TO SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS NRN AND ERN HALF
OF PNHDLS WED NIGHT FOR WRAPAROUND PRECIP.

DRY WX THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BY FRIDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO DIG INTO WRN
US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON
ALL ASPECTS OF HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR TROF...WHICH MAKES FOR LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE...WHEN...OR IF ANY TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG SLOSHING
DRYLINE. SOME MODELS SAY PNHDLS WILL BE CAPPED...OTHERS SAY NO.
AGAIN...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE AT ALL SPREADING 20 POPS AREAWIDE
FOR SVRL PERIODS THAT FAR OUT WHEN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
WHETHER OR NOT PRECIP WILL EVEN DEVELOP. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED
INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FCST BY KEEPING POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE
THIS WEEKEND THRU NEXT TUESDAY AT THIS TIME PENDING BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER AS TIME GETS
CLOSER.

OVERALL...PREVIOUS PCKG IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
MADE TO THE GRIDS.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
DUE TO RECENT RAINS...WET GROUNDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
807 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     TORNADO          15 NW GUYMON            36.84N 101.67W
05/18/2010                   TEXAS              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000449

ERA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             3 W PRINGLE             35.95N 101.51W
05/18/2010  E1.00 INCH       HUTCHINSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000451

MAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
818 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             28 W DALHART            36.06N 103.02W
05/18/2010  E1.00 INCH       DALLAM             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000452

MAD