Wind Advisory 7, NWS Albany, NY

502 
WWUS71 KALY 082011
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
411 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091000-
/O.EXT.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100509T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...
NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...
HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...
GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...
SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...
WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...
GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
411 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

433 
WWUS71 KALY 090745
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-
084-VTZ013-015-092230-
/O.NEW.KALY.FZ.W.0010.100510T0400Z-100510T1200Z/
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100509T2200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...
FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY.

THE FREEZE WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VERMONT...SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
NOT BEGUN THERE.

THE SKY WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 5 TO 15 MPH...ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR BELOW 32 DEGREES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
8 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S IS POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA
REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. FROST WILL BE
LIMITED...THOUGH...DUE TO THE STEADY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT
FROST COULD OCCUR IN AREAS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NYZ032-033-042-082-VTZ014-092200-
/O.CON.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100509T2200Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN FULTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
WARRENSBURG...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED OR
WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

583 
WWUS71 KALY 092001
NPWALY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-
084-VTZ013-015-101000-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100509T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.FZ.A.0001.100511T0300Z-100511T1300Z/
/O.CON.KALY.FZ.W.0010.100510T0400Z-100510T1200Z/
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-
EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-
EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
EASTERN DUTCHESS-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD...
TERRYVILLE...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...
LENOX...HOUSATONIC...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...
FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...
WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...
COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON...ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...
SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...
WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...
TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...
WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...
KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...
PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...
MILLERTON...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...
FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...BRATTLEBORO...
WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EDT MONDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXCLUDING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY.

THE SKY WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
5 TO 15 MPH...ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 8 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 20S IS POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER THAN TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

NYZ032-033-042-082-VTZ014-092115-
/O.CAN.KALY.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-100509T2200Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN FULTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...
WARRENSBURG...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT.

WINDS WERE GRADUALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE FALLEN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 AM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THE RESULT WILL BE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER...WITH THUNDER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ADJUST TIMING BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN VERY LIGHT AND FROM
A MID DECK THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS HEADING OUR WAY. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO OTHER GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM...WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF DEVELOPING
ALTOCU...ALONG SIDE THE CI/CS...WAS TRACKING ACROSS NY STATE WITH
ELEVATED RADAR REFLECTIVITIES INCREASING. PER THE LATEST
RUC13...EXPECT SOME CONTRACTION WITH THE CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD AS
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS FOR FRONTOGENESIS. THIS BEST
FGEN FORCING WILL LIKELY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SO THE BALANCE OF THIS EVENING WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK
INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE DACKS AND INTO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
     POTENT DYNAMIC STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

NCEP MODEL SUITE ALL SUPPORT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SHOWALTERS DROPPING BACK TO AT OR BELOW 0C...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST
HOURS OF SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL 4KM SPC WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS AFTER 06Z AND BE OVER ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AROUND 12Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL NOT
ROOT SURFACE PARCELS TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT BULK SHEAR
PROFILES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES INTO THE LOW-
MID 100S DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND LIKELY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MIGRATE
ACROSS OUR ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES IN THE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS HERE AT THIS TIME. INTO EASTERN
NY...APPROACHING DRY SLOT SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
INTRODUCES THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR MIXING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO
THE SURFACE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS PER LATEST
CSTAR RESEARCH /PER THE PRESENTATION TODAY/...WIND GUSTS REACHING
ADVISORY LEVEL IS RATHER HIGH AND POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA
INCREASING. THESE VALUES ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD ADVECTION AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMB QUITE HIGH TO SUPPORT >=40KT WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE TERRAIN AND INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY AS WESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD WITHIN THE HWO.

THESE WINDS RELAX A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE COLD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE
CONDITIONS RATHER BRISK. ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THIS COLD ADVECTION
COOLING THE COLUMN TO BRING SNOW BACK INTO THE FORECAST. FAVORABLE
LAKE ONTARIO RESPONSE WILL RESULT IN LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE FOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS /AMOUNTS UP TO
4 INCHES ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED/. IN FACT...UPSLOPE CONDITIONS COULD
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S /20S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/...COMBINED WITH WINDS...WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S. THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS WHERE THE EARLY GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED.

A BRISK AND CHILLY DAY SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AS DEEP STORM TRACKS
INTO NOVA SCOTIA AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. WITH
INCREASING MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE...ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES WILL EXIST. WITH
850MB TEMPS AOA -6C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 50-55F FOR THE
VALLEY AND 40S ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONAL...MAINLY ELEVATED...SHOWERS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH AN ENHANCEMENT FROM DEFORMATION ZONE
TRACKING ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THIS STORM CONTINUES TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THIS IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
IN FACT...WE COULD APPROACH NEW RECORD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IF SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE EARLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS STILL 1 TO 2
STD BELOW NORMAL /ACCORDING TO THE 12 UTC GEFS/ DUE TO A RECENTLY
DEPARTED TROUGH...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE. HIGH TEMPS
ON MON WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LOWS
MON NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
DRY IN MOST AREAS...A PERIOD OF RAIN DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF...SO
WILL ONLY FORECAST HIGH CHC POPS FOR NOW FROM TUES AFTN INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND EXPECTED PRECIP...MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
WON/T BE AS CHILLY AS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S
EXPECTED.

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS LOOK TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION...ACCORDING TO BOTH THE 12 GFS/ECMWF.
ALTHOUGH 850 HPA TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.

THE SFC STORM WILL DEPART OUT TO SEA FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
REGION WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A CUTOFF LOW AT 500 HPA OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING A BROAD TROUGH AND COOL TEMPS AT 850
HPA OVER THE REGION. WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BUILD INTO OUR REGION UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW
ANOTHER WARM FRONT MAKING ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE AREA FOR LATER ON
FRIDAY...SO WILL FORECAST CHC POPS FOR FRIDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS ON FRI LOOK TO BE WARMER THAN THURSDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 60S
FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MORNING...THEN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LARGE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO
KGFL AND JUST ON THE DOORSTEP OF KALB. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR TS
THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. INSTABILITY IS
ELEVATED SO STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD NOT OCCUR WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITHIN HEAVIER
RAINFALL. SINCE RAIN SHIELD IS ORIENTED NE-SW...IT WILL TAKE LONGER
TO REACH KPOU. ALSO...AREAL COVERAGE IS MORE NARROW FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE LINE...SO WILL FIRST MENTION VCSH THEN TEMPO FOR TS
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AT KPOU. LESS CERTAIN ABOUT IFR THERE DUE TO SHORTER
DURATION OF RAINFALL SO WILL OMIT AT THIS TIME AND JUST MENTION MVFR
CONDITIONS. VFR SHOULD RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA. WILL ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WITH VCSH. GENERALLY VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM 18Z THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR EXPECTED FROM KALB SOUTH TO KPOU THROUGH ABOUT
10Z-12Z...AS S-SW WINDS ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WHILE SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF KGFL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND LONGEST DURATION OF LLWS WILL
BE AT KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INITIALLY VARIABLE AROUND 5-10 KT...WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS
MORNING. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN BETTER MIXING COMMENCES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT
KALB...WHERE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
NOT SUBSIDE AFTER DARK...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN ISOLD -SHRA. WINDY.
MON...VFR. WINDY.
MON NIGHT-TUE AM...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE AFTN-WED...MVFR/IFR. CHC RAIN.
THU...VFR...CHC -SHRA SOUTH OF KALB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TONIGHT. THIS WILL RAISE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE 40
AND 60 PERCENTILE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER 80 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CONVECTION WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WESTERLY WINDS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH THOSE VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL VARY THROUGH THE DAY AS MINIMUM VALUES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 50 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WITH STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

AFTER A DRY DAY TODAY AND EVENING...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO GREATER THAN ONE INCH NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME OF
THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT MAY FALL AS SNOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...ONLY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON MANY STREAMS AND THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS...AS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS... PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013-015-081100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-EASTERN WINDHAM-
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND GUST
VALUES APPROACHING 50 MPH...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ONCE CONFIDENCE LEVELS INCREASE...WIND ADVISORIES OR
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AT OR
BELOW FREEZING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NYZ032-033-042-VTZ014-081100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN-WESTERN WINDHAM-
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WIND GUST
VALUES APPROACHING 50 MPH...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ONCE CONFIDENCE LEVELS INCREASE...WIND ADVISORIES OR
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINING WITH MOISTURE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. CURRENT FORECAST PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AT OR
BELOW FREEZING WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. THIS MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.

THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECASTS FROM
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY