Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
520 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW OF VERY COOL AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS CWA IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT BUT AHEAD OF SECOND LOW OVER NORTHEAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND SECONDARY TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
NY. SFC HEATING AND STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT HAS ALSO FUELED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS FA FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND MIXING THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER CONTINUES IN WAKE OF FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...SO WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME OF THE LINGER
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE ACCUMULATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ENHANCE QPF ACROSS NORTHERN
HERKIMER AND EXTREME NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA WILL SEE POPS DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE AND SUBSIDENCE STARTS TO
TAKE HOLD ESPECIALLY FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND
EAST. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND PULL BACK TO AN AREA GENERALLY AROUND THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS GOOD MIXING
EXPECTED UP TO AROUND 800 MB AND 0-30 MB AGL WINDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AREAS OF 35 TO 40 KTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME GRADIENT IN SOME AREAS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS LOW
AS NAM WOULD SUGGEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO WIND MAY PREVENT
FROST IN AREAS WHERE TEMPS DROP INTO THE MID 30S. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT SOME FROST/FREEZE ISSUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE
WILL BE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S FAR
NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST...HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S...AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ON TUES MORNING. WHILE THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MOST OF TUESDAY TO REMAIN DRY...A WARM FRONT FROM A STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE REGION. THE
12 UTC GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE AREA THAN
THE 12 UTC ECMWF. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW FOR CHC POPS FOR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTN...AND ALLOW FOR LIKELY POPS
NEARLY EVERYWHERE FOR TUES NIGHT. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING
MARGINAL ACROSS THE DACKS...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN
LATE AT NIGHT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS AND
GREENS...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
RAIN.

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. WITH THE PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WED EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT OF SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIP. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL DUE TO THE
CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOT OF DAYTIME CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS BRINGS
THE NEXT WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURS AFTN...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND DELAYS IT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL
FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS FOR
FRI/SAT...ALTHOUGH THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL
BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z SUNDAY.

EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY WITH PRIMARILY A VFR BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET. AT KPOU THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE SCT MOST OF THE TIME.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST HAVE SHOWN LIGHTING ACTIVITY...SO
HAVE KEPT THE CB QUALIFIER AT KALB/KGFL THROUGH 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
A TEMPO GROUP.

SURFACE WINDS FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME MAINLY WESTERLY
BY THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN ISOLD -SHRA. WINDY.
MON...VFR. BREEZY.
MON NT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE NT-WED...MVFR/IFR. CHC RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW OF VERY COOL AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
SOME SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 65 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 30 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY...RECOVER TO 70 TO 100
PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROP TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WITH STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BY THE TIME THE STEADIER RAIN ENDS
EARLY THIS EVENING...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
A HALF INCHES WILL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE HSA WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT WILL
FALL AS SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...ONLY MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON MANY STREAMS AND THE MAIN
STEM RIVERS...AS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SOAK INTO THE
GROUND. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS... PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
424 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
424 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL AS THEY RACE FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

MAZ001-025-082230-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-
600 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2010

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN

  CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...GREAT BARRINGTON...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND PEA
SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR HOUSATONIC...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTH OF GREAT
BARRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
BECKET AND 9 MILES NORTH OF OTIS BY 610 PM EDT
9 MILES SOUTH OF EAST WINDSOR BY 620 PM EDT

WASULA

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