Storm Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
653 AM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL RUNS...12Z NAM/06Z GFS/00Z EUROPEAN...
APPEAR TO BE GENERALLY SIMILAR ON THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BEAUFORT SEA...REACHING BANKS ISLAND BY 12Z THU.
00Z GFS WAS USED FOR TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE ARCTIC REGION.

BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR AKZ201-AKZ202 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS...WITH SNOW AS WELL AS BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

WINTER STORM ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AKZ205... WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO A HALF
MILE IN SOME AREAS. DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE SHOULD KEEP THE SNOW OUT OF AKZ205 TONIGHT AND WED...BUT
SNOW MAY BE LIKELY WED NIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO
WEST.

WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR AKZ207-AKZ208 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
BLIZZARD WARNINGS. GFS/NAM MOS TEMPERATURES FOR SOME NORTHWEST
ALASKA POINTS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM...LAYER MEAN 1000-850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW -3C...GFS/NAM CROSS SECTIONS ALSO
KEEPING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C OR COLDER. THE SNOW WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BECOME WETTER WITH THE RISING TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGH
WIND SPEEDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS TIP THE BALANCE SLIGHTLY IN
FAVOR OF A BLIZZARD WARNING OVER WINTER STORM.

OTHER EXISTING WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ZONES AKZ207-AKZ213.

OVER THE INTERIOR...MODERATELY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVER MANY AREAS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL LIKELY MODERATE AS WESTERLY FLOW SQUASHES
DOWN THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO SPREAD
EASTWARD. 1000-850 MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO RETURN...STRONG INVERSIONS ARE
LIKELY. CURRENT GFS/EUROPEAN BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS
TO 558-564 DAM OVER THE THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY SAT
AFTERNOON WITH 1000-850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 0C.

THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE COULD BRING
SOME SNOW TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY WED AFTERNOON OR
WED NIGHT...THE SNOW COULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO AKZ221-
AKZ222-AKZ223 BY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REBUILDING
RIDGE BRINGS THE SNOW TO ITS CONCLUSION.

MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
MAY BRING PRECIP TO THE BERING/CHUKCHI SEAS AND NEARBY
COASTAL AREAS BY FRI...WITH A SHORT WAVE BRINGING IN
A REINFORCING SHOT OF PRECIP SAT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ209.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ208.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

&&

RF NOV 10