Gale Warning 84, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
431 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL
BUILD EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK.
EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE STATE WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...
A 1050 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR
OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR INTO
THU. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS
FEATURE WITH LOWS OF 10 TO 30 BELOW. THERE ARE PATCHY FLURRIES AND
FOG IN VALLEYS AS WELL. THIS HIGH IS CAUSING STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST AND ARCTIC COASTS TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 600 NM NORTH OF
BARROW AS A 991 MB BY 3PM WED...AND TO WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 991 MB
LOW BY 3AM THU. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT
WILL MOVE TO ANAKTUVUK TO PRUDHOE BAY BY 3AM WED AND TO ARCTIC
VILLAGE TO BARTER ISLAND NORTH BY 3PM WED. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 30-50 KT ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST
WITH THE FRONT CAUSING WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHEAST. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL SEE
4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE BARROW TO CAPE LISBURNE TO
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY 4PM WED...AND TO ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF
THE ALASKA RANGE BY 3AM THU...AND TO EAGLE TO POINT HOPE BY 3PM
THU. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND START TO DECREASE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS WILL THE SNOWFALL. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
THIS FEATURE.

APPEARS AS THOUGH WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE FROM THE BERING STRAIT
SOUTH THROUGH THU SO EXPECT ANY RAIN TO REMAIN FROM THE BERING
STRAIT THROUGH THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ALOFT. MODELS
DIFFER SOME ON STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF BARROW WED. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION SINCE
IT IS DEEPER ON THE LOW CENTER AND CLOSER TO THE CURRENT STRENGTH.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
SEE CURRENT HEAVY SURF AND SPS FOR WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ207-AKZ208.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ211.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ209.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

JB NOV 10