Storm Warning 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

442 
FZAK51 PAFC 012300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021400-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 977 MB LOW 175 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 988 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-021400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-021400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT NW WIND 40 KT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. EXCEPT NW WIND 35 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS
CAPE. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-021400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-021400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN
ISLAND. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-021400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
242 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REGION EXTENDS
FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND TILTS NEGATIVELY INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW...A RIDGE IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A SEPARATE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA FROM WESTERN CANADA. A FORMIDABLE 185 KT JET SITS JUST SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...ALONG THE BORDER
BETWEEN THE GULF RIDGE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITTING UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. SUCH A SET UP INDICATES THAT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF BY TONIGHT AND DECAYING AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN THE GULF IS
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST...WHILE HIGHER PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...TODAY THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO THE GULF AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR TODAY THE MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
CAPTURING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION MUCH
MORE ACCURATELY THAN THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WERE
NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE NEW LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SO THE ECMWF
WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST
...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
GULF TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW APPROACHES THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY AS
THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD BUT THE LOW WILL REMAIN TOO
FAR SOUTH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF KING SALMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR KILBUCK THIS EVENING. SNOW WITH RAIN WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FROM THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS THIS
SHORTWAVE STALLS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. ONLY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 125 132 138 150 155 170 171 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN MAR 10