Storm Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

977 
FZAK61 PAFC 012301
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021400-
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 977 MB LOW AT 57N 147W REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO
988 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-021400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT THU APR 1 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

457 
FZAK61 PAFC 021154
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 2 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030200-
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A COMPLEX 980 MB LOW NEAR 57N 147W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKEN TO 990 MB SAT NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-030200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 2 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-030200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI APR 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
242 PM AKDT WED MAR 31 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REGION EXTENDS
FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND TILTS NEGATIVELY INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LOW...A RIDGE IS LOCATED WITHIN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A SEPARATE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA FROM WESTERN CANADA. A FORMIDABLE 185 KT JET SITS JUST SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA...ALONG THE BORDER
BETWEEN THE GULF RIDGE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITTING UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...JUST SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. SUCH A SET UP INDICATES THAT
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF BY TONIGHT AND DECAYING AS IT LOSES UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN THE GULF IS
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST...WHILE HIGHER PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...TODAY THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO THE GULF AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR TODAY THE MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO BE
CAPTURING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION MUCH
MORE ACCURATELY THAN THEY HAVE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WERE
NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN THE NEW LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SO THE ECMWF
WAS USED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST
...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
GULF TROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
STEADY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND KODIAK ISLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW APPROACHES THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY AS
THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD BUT THE LOW WILL REMAIN TOO
FAR SOUTH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION EAST OF KING SALMON THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR KILBUCK THIS EVENING. SNOW WITH RAIN WILL IMPACT
MUCH OF THE MAINLAND FROM THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW EVENING AS THIS
SHORTWAVE STALLS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DUTCH HARBOR LOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST. ONLY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
ALTHOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE LOWS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 125 132 138 150 155 170 171 172 175 176
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN MAR 10