Storm Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

808 
FZAK61 PAFC 262353
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 55N 142W MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT. 
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 55N 144W WED AFTERNOON MOVES TO 57N 150W AT 985 MB
LATE WED NIGHT. A 974 MB LOW NEAR 52N 154W WED EVENING MOVES TO 54N
154W AT 983 MB THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E OF
147W. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON JAN 25 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE HANDLING THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES(BERING SEA/MAINLAND RIDGE AND LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW) REASONABLY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING ISSUES OF WAVE
SE OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WHICH MOVES INTO THE GULF TUE. ALL
MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN CENTER...HOWEVER THE UKMET AND ECMWF MOVE
SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/NAM. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SOLUTION
WITH RESEMBLES THE UKMET/ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN IN THAT
DIRECTION ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...HEIGHTS FELL SOME OVER THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT AS CANADIAN
RIDGE SHIFTED EAST SOME. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MAINLAND SPLITS BERING SEA AND MAINLAND RIDGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BUILDS
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF/WEST COAST WED AND THU. A LOW CENTER
MOVES S OF THE AK PEN THU...SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT
INTO THE GULF AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK AND ALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CENTERS
TO INTRUDE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GULF/MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND SOUTHCENTRAL AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE MON AS INVERSION
PRESISTS. WEAK TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO KODIAK TONIGHT. LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF TONIGHT.
EXPECT WE WILL SEE GALES IN COASTAL MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT WITH THIS
CENTER. MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. NEXT WAVE MOVING SE OF KODIAK WILL
BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF...WARM ADVECTION...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTS WED NIGHT.
MOISTURE INTRUSION LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU.

.WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SW ALASKA...EASTERN BERING SEA...AK PEN TUE AND WED AS HIGH BUILDS TO
NORTH AND WITH STORM CENTER MOVING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TUE AFTERNOON AND WED. COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS SW ALASKA COUPLED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE DELTA LATER TUE AND WED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AK PEN...EASTERN BERING...AND SW AK
THU/THU NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS INTO SW ALASKA THU AND THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK. SOME RIDGING INLAND ATTACHED TO A LARGE WEST
COAST HIGH (LOWER 48 AND BRITISH COLUMBIA) WILL KEEP TOO MUCH
MOISTURE FROM GETTING INLAND...BUT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED AND HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 120 130 132 AND 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 10