Gale Warning 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON JAN 25 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE HANDLING THE
LARGE SCALE FEATURES(BERING SEA/MAINLAND RIDGE AND LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW) REASONABLY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE TIMING ISSUES OF WAVE
SE OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WHICH MOVES INTO THE GULF TUE. ALL
MODELS GENERALLY WEAKEN CENTER...HOWEVER THE UKMET AND ECMWF MOVE
SYSTEM A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/NAM. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SOLUTION
WITH RESEMBLES THE UKMET/ECMWF...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN IN THAT
DIRECTION ON THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...HEIGHTS FELL SOME OVER THE MAINLAND OVERNIGHT AS CANADIAN
RIDGE SHIFTED EAST SOME. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
MAINLAND SPLITS BERING SEA AND MAINLAND RIDGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC BUILDS
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF/WEST COAST WED AND THU. A LOW CENTER
MOVES S OF THE AK PEN THU...SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR ALOFT
INTO THE GULF AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SIGNAL A SHIFT IN STORM TRACK AND ALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CENTERS
TO INTRUDE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GULF/MAINLAND ALASKA.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AND SOUTHCENTRAL AGAIN TONIGHT AND TUE MON AS INVERSION
PRESISTS. WEAK TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO KODIAK TONIGHT. LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF TONIGHT.
EXPECT WE WILL SEE GALES IN COASTAL MARINE AREAS TUE NIGHT WITH THIS
CENTER. MAJORITY OF ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO COASTAL LOCATIONS. NEXT WAVE MOVING SE OF KODIAK WILL
BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH GULF...WARM ADVECTION...AND
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COASTS WED NIGHT.
MOISTURE INTRUSION LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THU.

.WEST...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SW ALASKA...EASTERN BERING SEA...AK PEN TUE AND WED AS HIGH BUILDS TO
NORTH AND WITH STORM CENTER MOVING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS LIKELY OVER THE DELTA TUE AFTERNOON AND WED. COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS SW ALASKA COUPLED WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE DELTA LATER TUE AND WED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AK PEN...EASTERN BERING...AND SW AK
THU/THU NIGHT AS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS INTO SW ALASKA THU AND THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA SOUTH OF KODIAK. SOME RIDGING INLAND ATTACHED TO A LARGE WEST
COAST HIGH (LOWER 48 AND BRITISH COLUMBIA) WILL KEEP TOO MUCH
MOISTURE FROM GETTING INLAND...BUT CHANCES ARE WARRANTED AND HAVE
BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 120 130 132 AND 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 10