Storm Warning 68, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
405 PM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE WATCH AND WARNING PERIOD
THROUGH THE NEXT 60 HRS(FRI AFTERNOON). MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL AS FORECAST TRENDS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...WEAKENING LOW OVER SW ALASKA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA LIFTS NORTH THU AS RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE WEST. SHORT WAVE ALONG 165E THIS AFTERNOON INTENSIFIES
AS COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A LOW CENTER
FORMS NEAR 50N 180W TONIGHT AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN AK PEN THU NIGHT. CENTER THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO BRISTOL
BAY FRI. RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THIS CENTER AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES TO
OVER THE AK PEN/BRISTOL BAY THU AFTERNOON AND TO THE EASTERN
GULF/BRITISH COLUMBIA FRI AFTERNOON. AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BRING A
SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER AIR THEN
SPREADS BACK OVER SW ALASKA FRI AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...GOES IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE KENAI PEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
INLAND AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. OLD STORM SYSTEM WHICH MOVED TO THE GULF
OF ALASKA TRACKS TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY THU MORNING
AND WEAKENS. LOW THEN WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH WITH UPPER TROUGH.
COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND THE KENAI PEN
THU. STORM CENTER RACING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO EASTERN BRISTOL
BAY FRI. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH BY FRI AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM
BRISTOL BAY...THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL...TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.

GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS LOW CENTER OVER
THE KENAI WEAKENS AND PUSHES NORTH THIS EVENING. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE KENAI PEN AND NORTH GULF WILL TAPER OFF SOME LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH. INCREASE POPS OF SNOW MOVE
BACK IN THIS EVENING AS LOW OVER THE GULF MOVES TO WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW POTENTIAL POSSIBLE FOR
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND NORTHERN
KENAI PEN. SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF AND LIFT NORTH THU AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER TROUGH. COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING LOCALLY STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THU AS
GRADIENTS RELAX. NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WINDS MOVE IN THU NIGHT
AND FRI WITH ADVANCING ALEUTIAN STORM.

.WEST...
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AK PEN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND GULF LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. DEVELOPING
NORTH PACIFIC STORM APPEARS TO BE STILL ON TRACK. THIS LOW
INTENSIFIES A 963 MB 290 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK TONIGHT THEN MOVES TO
COLD BAY THURSDAY NIGHT FURTHER INTENSIFYING TO 950 MB. THIS CENTER
SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY FRI.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT
AND PUSHES EAST TO SW ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY THU EVENING. SHOULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO EAST OF LOW CENTER.

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER WITH HURRICANE TO
STORM FORCE OF THE BACKSIDE. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT THEN POTENTIALLY SPREAD TO
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRI NIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF VERY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS LATE THU AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STORM TRACK IS NOT AS FAVORABLE
THIS CURRENT RUN. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR BRISTOL
BAY THU NIGHT AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN STORM MOVES INTO THE
REGION.  WARM ADVECTION WITH FRONT WILL PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AK PEN THU NIGHT...BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WILL BE A CONCERN FRI
WITH ONSET OF STRONG NW WINDS WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF STORM CENTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187. BLIZZARD WATCH 185 195.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...172 175.
         STORM WARNING...132 150 155 170 171.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 138 160 165 176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...130 138 140 141 150 160 165
                                        170 172 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 10