Gale Warning 225, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST WED MAR 3 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THE
REST ON PATH OF CURRENT ALASKA PENINSULA SOLUTION. OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLUTION MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE NEXT
ALEUTIAN. GFS PREFERRED MODEL BUT CENTRAL PRESSURE OF NEXT SYSTEM
ADJUSTED UPWARD BY ABOUT 5 MB.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA...BERING
SEA...AND WESTERN RUSSIA AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT. EMBEDDED CUT
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR BRISTOL BAY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES BY
EARLY THU EVENING. NEW CUT OFF LOW CENTER ALOFT DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THU NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DEEPENING CENTER.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
A STRONG 976 MB LOW NEAR SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 988 MB NEAR MONTAGUE
ISLAND WED EVENING AND THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE THU AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM LOW ACROSS THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.
A 985 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ABOUT 600 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WED
AFTERNOON AND THEN INTENSIFY TO 950 MB JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS THU MORNING. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO NEAR COLD BAY
THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT. THE FRONT RAPIDLY
OCCLUDES AS ITS PUSHED FURTHER EAST...PASSING OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY...AND THEN KODIAK ISLAND AND
THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.

.FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM...
MAJOR ALEUTIAN LOW NOW POSITIONED NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK
ISLAND. SYSTEM IS WINDING DOWN BUT STILL HAS SOME PUNCH LEFT IN IT.
PRECIPITATION BAND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO DAY. BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY. UP TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY ALONG
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN EXPOSURES. ANCHORAGE AND MATSU PROTECTED
THIS MORNING DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG GULF COAST UNDER A RELAXING TREND. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED DOWN INTO WESTERN ALASKA AND EASTERN
BERING SEA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN ALASKA
FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN TONIGHT.
BROAD BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING...EASTERN ALEUTIANS...AND ALASKA PENINSULA. SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

.SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM...
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO ALEUTIANS EXPECTED TO BE ARRIVE WED NIGHT
AND BE EVEN MORE INTENSE THAN LAST NIGHTS STORM. MODELS UNCERTAIN HOW
MUCH TO DEEPEN THIS LOW...BUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 945 AND 955 MB. BROAD
AREAS OF STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD SPREAD ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 181 THIS MORNING.
         BLIZZARD WATCHES FOR 187 195.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 165 171 176 179
         STORM 155 170
         HURRICANE FORCE 172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 150 160 165 170 171 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAR 10