Storm Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

569 
FZAK61 PAFC 262304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271400-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 52N 150W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 58N 151W SUN AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING 980 MB LOW NEAR 51N 
136W SAT AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 969 MB NEAR 59N 141W SAT NIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-271400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
233 PM AKDT THU MAR 25 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH REGION STRETCHES FROM RUSSIA TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH REGION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF ADAK ISLAND WHILE A SECOND MORE POTENT LOW IS LOCATED IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ADAK ISLAND. AN UNDULATING 150 KT
JET IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

.AT THE SURFACE...A BEAUTIFULLY WRAPPED OCCLUDED 968 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE UPPER LEVEL 150
KT JET IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA...THERE ARE TWO MUCH WEAKER 993 MB LOWS WITH ONE LOW
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL BAY AND A SEPARATE LOW NORTH OF ADAK
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS FROM NORTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTH OF RUSSIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE IN THE POSITION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
THAT BEGINS TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. THE LARGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
BE PARTLY DUE TO HOW EACH MODEL IS DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT. THE GFS INDICATES A JET MAX FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF
FAVORS A JET MAX FARTHER WEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERN POSITION
FOR THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND WAS CHOSEN FOR THE SHORT TERM WEST FORECAST
AREA AND LONG TERM FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH NO DOMINANT LOW IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY...WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AND TOMORROW.  A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF
COAST ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT 966 MB LOW APPROACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MUCH
LOWER IN INLAND AREAS.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.  WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE LOWS OVER THE BERING DISSIPATE AND THE GULF LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

.THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A POTENT 969 MB LOW WILL APPROACH SHEMYA
BY FRIDAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND STEADY
SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS DECREASING WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE JET STREAM WILL BE
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALASKA OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG.
AS A RESULT...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN MAR 10