Gale Warning 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

742 
FZAK52 PAFC 262343
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271045-
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 970 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK
SAT NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-271045-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271045-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SHUMAGIN ISLANDS EAST...NE WIND 35 KT
DECREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271045-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271045-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-271045-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271045-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271045-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-271045-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271045-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271045-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-271045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI MAR 26 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
233 PM AKDT THU MAR 25 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH REGION STRETCHES FROM RUSSIA TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA. WITHIN THIS TROUGH REGION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF ADAK ISLAND WHILE A SECOND MORE POTENT LOW IS LOCATED IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ADAK ISLAND. AN UNDULATING 150 KT
JET IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

.AT THE SURFACE...A BEAUTIFULLY WRAPPED OCCLUDED 968 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE UPPER LEVEL 150
KT JET IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE. WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA...THERE ARE TWO MUCH WEAKER 993 MB LOWS WITH ONE LOW
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRISTOL BAY AND A SEPARATE LOW NORTH OF ADAK
ISLAND. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS FROM NORTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTH OF RUSSIA.

MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE MOVEMENT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SURFACE LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE IN THE POSITION OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
THAT BEGINS TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. THE LARGE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS APPEARS TO
BE PARTLY DUE TO HOW EACH MODEL IS DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT. THE GFS INDICATES A JET MAX FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF
FAVORS A JET MAX FARTHER WEST. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WESTERN POSITION
FOR THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND WAS CHOSEN FOR THE SHORT TERM WEST FORECAST
AREA AND LONG TERM FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH NO DOMINANT LOW IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
DAY...WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AND TOMORROW.  A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A CHANCE FOR MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF
COAST ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT 966 MB LOW APPROACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MUCH
LOWER IN INLAND AREAS.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.  WEATHER WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE LOWS OVER THE BERING DISSIPATE AND THE GULF LOW REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE REGION.

.THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A POTENT 969 MB LOW WILL APPROACH SHEMYA
BY FRIDAY BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN. THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS AND STEADY
SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS DECREASING WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE JET STREAM WILL BE
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO ALASKA OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG.
AS A RESULT...MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE FORECAST REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 155 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN MAR 10