Storm Warning 267, NWS Anchorage, AK

232 
FZAK52 PAFC 291640 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
740 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

CORRECTED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 969 MB LOW 270 NM SW OF ADAK MOVES TO 130 NM S OF DUTCH HARBOR AT
980 MB THU MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 983 MB LOW FORMS 90 NM SE OF
DUTCH HARBOR WED AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 50 NM S OF DILLINGHAM AT 977
MB THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND. A 986 MB LOW FORMS 70 NM NE OF
ATKA THU AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-300300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
740 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-300300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 160W. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-300300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-300300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT W OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DURING THE
MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...BERING SIDE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SW 
WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-300300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-300300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 40 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...N WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...S WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 29 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 28 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 24 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 
16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-300300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 28 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-300300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 11 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 13 FT E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-300300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

JAM DEC 10

284 
FZAK52 PAFC 300020
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 969 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 140 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 980 MB THU MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 986 MB LOW WILL
FORM 75 NM EAST OF ATKA THU AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT.
A 976 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 270 NM SOUTH OF
DUTCH HARBOR AT 973 MB FRI AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-301500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-301500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND 
SNOW. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-301500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE.

.THU...SW WIND 20. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ171-301500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 30 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS
21 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.

.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 1 2 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-301500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...
20 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...20 FT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...17 FT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-301500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST TUE DEC 28 2010

.ANALYSIS...
THE PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDER WAY. THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BEEN
STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL ALASKA IS SHIFTING EAST...CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. THE NEW DOMINANT TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WHILE A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHWARD RIDING THE 145 KT JET. AT THE SURFACE...A 963 MB LOW SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS DRIFTING EAST WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. TWO WEAKER
VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF AS THEY DRIFT
EAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NAM AND GFS INITIALIZE POORLY ON THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE ECMWF DOES A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB WITH THIS
DEVELOPING FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...VERY FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODELS UNTIL A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO PLACE THIS
LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY PLACING THE LOW IN THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA OVER BRISTOL BAY. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION AND
CONSISTENCY ISSUES...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES OVER. AN IMPRESSIVE OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE NORTH TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL THIS EVENING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A DRY PASSAGE. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE USUALLY LENDS ITSELF TO AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SO WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY WORDING WITH ACCUMULATION OF AN
INCH OR LESS EXCEPT THE UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. IT APPEARS
THAT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE TO CHANGE
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE POSITION OF THE LOW BASED
ON THE ECMWF WILL LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING IN ANCHORAGE UNTIL THE COLD AIR
WRAPS BACK AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS STORM INCLUDE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS NEAR
PORTAGE UNTIL THE WARM AIR ARRIVES AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING
ON THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. THOMPSON PASS ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ALONG THE GULF COAST
AND THE SNOW INTENSITY INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. AT PLACES LIKE BETHEL AND KING
SALMON...TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 10 TO 20 BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE IMPENDING STORM
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT FOLLOWS THE ECMWF TRACK...WILL AT LEAST
BRIEFLY BRING TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WARM AIR SPILLS
THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN AND ALASKA RANGES. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
MIDDLE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...AS WELL AS FREEZING RAIN IN PARTS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY ZONE.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOWS WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
ALASKA IN AN ACTIVE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING EACH
SYSTEM.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED JUST NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...SWITCHING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE A BIT FURTHER NORTH
AND STALL NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE EASTERLY WINDS AND SNOW
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST
PAUL AND ST GEORGE ISLANDS.

THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL DRIFT EAST UNDER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS IT
GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO 983 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR WILL SPILL
BACK SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...BRINGING COLD AIR
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE CHAIN DURING THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
MARINE...STORMS 175 176
         GALES...132 170 172 352 411 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 138 140 141 160 165 179 180
185 412 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB DEC 10