Blizzard Warning 29, NWS Anchorage, AK

652 
WWAK42 PAFC 290910
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

AKZ195-300200-
/X.EXT.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.101229T1300Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
1210 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO
3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
AWAY AND WINDS WEAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

JAM

669 
WWAK42 PAFC 291355
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

AKZ195-300230-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
455 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
AWAY AND WINDS WEAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

JAM

198 
WWAK42 PAFC 291450
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

AKZ195-300400-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
550 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
AWAY AND WINDS WEAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-300400-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WC.Y.0017.101229T1450Z-101230T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
550 AM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY. 

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF 5
BELOW TO 20 BELOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW TO 50 BELOW
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE
ON THURSDAY CLOSER TO ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO RISE
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

978 
WWAK42 PAFC 300050
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

AKZ195-301400-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
350 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THURSDAY. 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW SOUTH OF ADAK REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-ZERO
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS AND DIMINISHING
SNOWFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ155-301400-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-101230T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
350 PM AKST WED DEC 29 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST
THURSDAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST THURSDAY.

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES OF 10
BELOW TO 15 BELOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW TO 45 BELOW
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ON THURSDAY
ABOVE ZERO BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

483 
WWAK42 PAFC 301312
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

AKZ195-310000-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
412 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW HAS TAPERED TO SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEATHER FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAS WEAKENED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PERSIST
HOWEVER...AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH CONTINUE TO
PICK UP AND BLOW THE SNOW AROUND...REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR-
ZERO AT TIMES. THESE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK TO END AS WINDS
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND VISIBILITY IMPROVES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

AKZ152-310245-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.101231T0200Z-101231T1900Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
412 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM AKST FRIDAY.

LIGHT SNOW OCCURING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. A STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 9 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FROM SLEETMUTE EAST. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENDING THE SNOW
THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ161-310245-
/X.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.101230T2200Z-101231T1400Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
412 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY.

LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. A STEADIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST OF DILLINGHAM. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENDING
THE SNOW THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ155-302100-
/X.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-101230T2100Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
412 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY. 

AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25
BELOW TO 40 BELOW THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL WARMING OF AIR
TEMPERATURES AND AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL HELP TO END THESE LOW
WIND CHILLS TOWARDS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

JAM

748 
WWAK42 PAFC 302240
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

AKZ195-302345-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0029.000000T0000Z-101231T0000Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
140 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. 

THE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AND VISIBILITIES ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. 

$$

AKZ152-311145-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.101231T0200Z-101231T1900Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
140 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM AKST FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM AKST FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. A STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 9 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FROM SLEETMUTE EAST. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENDING THE SNOW
THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

AKZ161-311145-
/X.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-101231T1400Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
140 PM AKST THU DEC 30 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST
FRIDAY. 

LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY AS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL TRACK TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. A STEADIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST OF DILLINGHAM. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...ENDING
THE SNOW THREAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST MON DEC 27 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA IS LOSING AMPLITUDE AS THE ANTICIPATED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LEVEL LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK TO THE EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY
THAT IS QUICKLY WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING IS A DISTANT MEMORY AS A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO A CONSENSUS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING BERING SEA LONGWAVE TROUGH. PREVIOUS TIMING
ISSUES BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY RESOLVED
TODAY...LEADING TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE DOMAIN. AS A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE
ROTATES TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON SOME ASPECTS OF POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE FEATURE. THUS MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST. BASED ON THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...A COMBINATION OF MODELS WAS USED IN THE
SHORT TERM. FOR THE MID AND LONG RANGE...A COMBINATION OF HPC
GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z EUROPEAN MODEL WAS USED IN THE MORNING FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE GULF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PRIMARILY OVER COASTAL AREAS AND
KODIAK ISLAND. AS THE COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT NOW THAT A WEAK LOW
WILL LINGER OFF THE COAST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING BERING FRONT THAT IS RACING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT. BEST BET
RIGHT NOW IS THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY WED MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT MOST PLACES...WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BY THURSDAY AS THE CURRENT
BERING LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD COOK INLET. WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC
LIFT GIVES WAY TO MORE DYNAMIC FEATURES AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THE CLASSIC
DOWNSLOPING PATTERN IN ANCHORAGE WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN LOW
APPROACHES. THESE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE-TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST PACKAGES.

.SOUTHWEST...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
ON WEDNESDAY AS BERING SEA SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME...EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE NEAR 35 BELOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WARM UP
TEMPERATURES.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...STORM-FORCE WINDS AND NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NO WARMED TO NEAR FREEZING...RAISING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THE THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE PAST...THUS HAVE OPTED
TO CANCEL THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER FRONT
WILL GENERALLY PARALLEL THE ALEUTIANS AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF
THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN AT LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
INCREASING FOR THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MANY CRITICAL DETAILS OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN UNANSWERED. HOWEVER...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A WARMER AND
SNOWIER PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND CONTINUED COLD NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131
MARINE...STORM 175 176
         GALE 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD DEC 10