Storm Warning 259, NWS Anchorage, AK

999
FZAK51 PAFC 160004
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
TONIGHT. A 989 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WED NIGHT MOVES TO
265 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THU MORNING AT 991 MB AND THEN DISSIPATES.
$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 12
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS W.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT...SEAS 10 FT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND
30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT
EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED DEC 15 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. PACIFIC
STORMS WILL TRACK WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO WEST OF ANADYR
AROUND THE BERING RIDGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STABLE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ALASKA INTO THE
WEEKEND.  THE PATTERN FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE BERING
ALONG THE DATELINE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF. A STABLE COLD AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO
WINDY AND COLD IN SOUTH CENTRAL...COLD AND CALM IN THE INTERIOR AND
NO STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND ALASKA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON WORKING ITS
WAY INTO MOST LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS...VALDEZ...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ISSUED FOR KODIAK ISLAND FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20
BELOW TO 30 BELOW RANGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE BERING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  THIS MEANS MILDER...DRIER AND CALMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK
FOR THE MAINLAND.  THE LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE
BERING RIDGE WITH A COLD UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 140 150
         GALE 121 125 129 138 141 155 165 170 171 172 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 10