Gale Warning 1004, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE DEC 14 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. PACIFIC
STORMS WILL TRACK WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO WEST OF ANADYR
AROUND THE BERING RIDGE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
INTERIOR AND A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STABLE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ALASKA INTO THE
WEEKEND.  THE PATTERN FEATURES A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE BERING
ALONG THE DATELINE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND
WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF. A STABLE COLD AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE MAINLAND WITH A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.  THIS TRANSLATES INTO
WINDY AND COLD IN SOUTH CENTRAL...COLD AND CALM IN THE INTERIOR AND
NO STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MAINLAND ALASKA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON WORKING ITS
WAY INTO MOST LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGES. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS...VALDEZ...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS ISSUED FOR KODIAK ISLAND FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  A WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20
BELOW TO 30 BELOW RANGE.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE BERING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  THIS MEANS MILDER...DRIER AND CALMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK
FOR THE MAINLAND.  THE LONG TERM MODELS SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE
BERING RIDGE WITH A COLD UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 111 131 135
MARINE...STORM 120 130 132 140 150
         GALE 121 125 129 138 141 155 165 170 171 172 176 179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 10