Storm Warning 238, NWS Anchorage, AK

516 
FZAK51 PAFC 170632 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
930 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

AMENDED 125 FOR WINDS TONIGHT

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1011 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA WILL FILL AND DISSIPATE BY
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WILL KEEP STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WEDNESDAY AND WEAKEN BY THURSDAY.

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. SEAS 9 FT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$ 

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...BARREN ISLANDS SE...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. NW OF BARREN ISLANDS...
NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS 
TO 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT OF BAY AND PASSES.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

607 
FZAK51 PAFC 171243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A
WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRI.
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
75 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED NOV 17 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MOST AREAS. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HANDLING OFF NEXT
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THAN THE NAM/EC. SUSPECT THAT
THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY AND WILL TREND GRIDS THAT WAY ON
THIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON LOW POSITION...THEY ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE QPF FIELDS AND GRADIENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING/EAST ALEUTIANS. THE WRF MODEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS ARE
DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB PICKING UP LOCAL WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

.500MB...AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HRS AND HOLDS THROUGH FRI. COLD TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND
MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN CANADA WED. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND WED AND THU. THE
RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST ALONG 155 WEST FRI AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE GULF TO OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO FRI.

.SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
BRISTOL BAY BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO
LATER THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEAKENS.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE NORTH GULF.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF ZONES 131 AND 135 ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH WED. WARNING LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED...HOWEVER SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH GAPS INTO FRI MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF.

.SW MAINLAND...NORTHERLY WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE
AREAS OF FOG DURING NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INTO FRI...OTHERWISE THE
BLOCKING HIGH WILL HOLD OUT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT 989 MB THU MORNING. THIS LOW
DEEPENS INTO THE 970'S AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF SHEMYA
FRI. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A NORTH MOVING FRONT PUSHES
BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WARNING TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
WED AND THU. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE PRIBILOFS
LATE THU. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE SW
MAINLAND THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD
TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS WED AND HOLD INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UPPER-RIDGE TO KEEP
THE MAINLAND RATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEK'S END. A SERIES OF LOWS LOOK
TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DO
SO. THE PENDING SHOULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 111 131 AND 135.
MARINE...STORMS 126 127 128 130 132.
         GALES 120 121 129 138 140 141 150 155 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 10