Gale Warning 897, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST TUE NOV 16 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
MOST AREAS. MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HANDLING OFF NEXT
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE
LOW FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THAN THE NAM/EC. SUSPECT THAT
THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY AND WILL TREND GRIDS THAT WAY ON
THIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON LOW POSITION...THEY ARE
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE QPF FIELDS AND GRADIENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING/EAST ALEUTIANS. THE WRF MODEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS ARE
DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB PICKING UP LOCAL WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA.

.500MB...AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HRS AND HOLDS THROUGH FRI. COLD TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND
MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN CANADA WED. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND WED AND THU. THE
RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST ALONG 155 WEST FRI AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS
NORTH FROM THE GULF TO OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO FRI.

.SURFACE...
SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF OF ALASKA...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
BRISTOL BAY BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND TONIGHT AND WILL PERSIST INTO
LATER THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND WEAKENS.

STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE NORTH GULF.
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF ZONES 131 AND 135 ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH WED. WARNING LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED...HOWEVER SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH GAPS INTO FRI MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH GULF.

.SW MAINLAND...NORTHERLY WINDS OVER BRISTOL BAY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE
AREAS OF FOG DURING NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS INTO FRI...OTHERWISE THE
BLOCKING HIGH WILL HOLD OUT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AT 989 MB THU MORNING. THIS LOW
DEEPENS INTO THE 970'S AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF SHEMYA
FRI. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A NORTH MOVING FRONT PUSHES
BRINGS SIGNIFICANT WARNING TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
WED AND THU. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE PRIBILOFS
LATE THU. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE SW
MAINLAND THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD
TO MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS WED AND HOLD INTO FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE UPPER-RIDGE TO KEEP
THE MAINLAND RATHER DRY THROUGH THE WEEK'S END. A SERIES OF LOWS LOOK
TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE PATTERN...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DO
SO. THE PENDING SHOULD BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 111 131 AND 135.
MARINE...STORMS 126 127 128 130 132.
         GALES 120 121 129 138 140 141 150 155 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC NOV 10