Storm Warning 232, NWS Anchorage, AK

825 
FZAK51 PAFC 110022
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 955 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 976 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ON FRI.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 23
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIODS AS MODELS USUALLY
HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING PATTERN CHANGES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WAS
ADDING AND MAKING ANY NECESSARY CHANGES WITH THE LOW THAT WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE GULF TODAY AND THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL BY TONIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE BERING SEA EXTENDING
DOWN TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A LOW IS STRENGTHENING SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE PUSHED
TOWARDS THE GULF BY A STRONG JET STREAK. STRONG GALE TO STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL BE COMMON IN THE GULF AS WELL AS ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING LOWER COOK INLET TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. THE ACTUAL LOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
MOVING INLAND. A SECOND WEAKER LOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW ONSHORE SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY. IN THE BERING...THE LARGE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIT AND SPIN MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCES AROUND IT INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE BUT SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

THE CULPRIT IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
FOG...OR THE LACK THEREOF IN SOME PLACES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA HAS PROBABLY HELPED PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE
STRATUS DECK JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN MOST PLACES...AS WELL AS TO
ALSO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. THE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE OUT OVER
THE INLET AND NORTH TOWARDS TALKEETNA...WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE
OCCASIONALLY DROPPED TO ONE QUARTER MILE. WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
ALREADY OUT IN MOST PLACES UNTIL LATE MORNING...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVING OVERHEAD PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WILL LIKELY DROP THE ADVISORIES IN MOST PLACES BUT ISSUE
STRONG WORDING IN TEXT FORECASTS.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN COMES WITH THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. WILL MENTION
STRONG WINDS FOR KODIAK ISLAND TODAY...AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE REGION AND NEARBY COASTAL ZONES BY TONIGHT.
UPSLOPE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING FAIRLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST FACING AREAS...WHILE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SLOPES WILL KEEP THOSE ON THE DRY SIDE FOR MOST OF THIS
STORM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THIS REGION DRY...THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. THERE IS THE CONCERN FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO FALL IN THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
DILLINGHAM...AS COLD AIR HAS BECOME ENTRENCHED NEAR THE SURFACE
AND WARMER AIR OVERRUNS IT ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST.

BERING SEA REGION...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IT APPEARS MODELS ARE TRYING SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE EXISTING NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES WESTWARD LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...THIS WOULD
LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH AND WEST INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. IF THIS WERE
TO VERIFY...COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND WEST COULD ARRIVE IN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...125 129 140 160
         STORMS...120 130 132 138 150 155
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC NOV 10