Storm Warning 231, NWS Anchorage, AK

491 
FZAK52 PAFC 101541 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

UPDATED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110300-
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 996 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL MOVES NEAR ADAK THU MORNING
AND DISSIPATES. A 972 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT
STRENGTHENS TO 958 MB THIS AFTERNOON 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BEFORE
WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF. A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR PORT MOLLER THU MORNING AND MOVES TO 90 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY AT
988 MB BY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO NE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 
NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS 
E...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO NE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 DIMINISHING TO
NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE

WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-110300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-110300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-110300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...BERING SIDE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NW
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-110300-
UNALASKA BAY
640 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-110300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ179-110300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

331 
FZAK52 PAFC 110025
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 996 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF ATKA WILL DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A 983 MB
LOW WILL FORM 40 NM NORTHEAST OF COLD BAY THU MORNING AND MOVE TO 
120 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH FRI. A 955 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL
WEAKEN TO 976 MB AS IT MOVES TO 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON
AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND FRI.

$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND FIR NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1230 PM AKST TUE NOV 9 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE ALASKA REGION REMAINS ENVELOPED
WITHIN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE BERING
SEA WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS. THE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW COMPLEX IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC DUE TO A JET STREAK IN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS
AMPLIFICATION WILL HELP PICK UP A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM JUST
TO THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH
OF THE SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS NOW
OPENED INTO A WAVE AND IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. MIDDLETON ISLAND ALSO SHOWS A SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. THESE
COULD DROP A QUICK SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AS IT MOVES ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE
DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ALL OTHER MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS NOT TOO FAR FROM
THE GFS SOLUTION. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION WILL
BEGIN TO ADD IN MORE DETAIL AS THIS STORM REACHES SOUTHCENTRAL.
ELSEWHERE...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN.
COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW PACK IN A LOT OF AREAS WITH SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE DENSE. A MAJOR PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE TO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT FLOW AROUND TO THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO HELP ERODE THE
FOG BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BOTTOM OUT
BEFORE THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF AND THE STORM WILL
QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE PUSH
BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH WILL FALL APART ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THIS MEANS THAT THE WARM TROPICAL AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STAY JUST OFFSHORE AND PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WARM AIR WILL PENETRATE INLAND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS TO SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA WHICH
WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONTAL POSITION ALSO AFFECTS WINDS. THE STORM TRACK OFTEN FAVORS
STRONG WINDS THROUGH PASSAGE CANAL AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NEARLY STALLING ALONG THE COAST THE MEAN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...SO DO NOT EXPECT
A WHOLE LOT OF WIND THROUGH THOSE AREAS. ONCE THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT DO PUSH THROUGH AND FLOW BECOMES DUE EAST THE WINDS WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED. OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL BE A DIFFERENT
STORY WHERE WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN TRACK OF LOW INLAND...SO WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS OF HOW THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE
IMPACTED.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ON THE OUTER FRINGE OF THE
GULF STORM...SO THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A BERING LOW
WILL THE APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY BRINGING SNOW TO COASTAL
AREAS.

BERING SEA ALEUTIANS...UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING WILL WANDER AROUND
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE ULTIMATELY TRACKING TOWARD SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL BERING SETTING UP A VERY TYPICAL
PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHERLIES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NEXT SHORT-WAVE HEADING OUT OF ASIA WILL
PHASE WITH ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM BERING SEA LOW COMPLEX
AND HELP CREATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STORM TRACK
FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL. MODELS DO
INDICATE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SO WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO A NEW LONG-WAVE PATTERN.
HOWEVER...STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THIS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 132 138 150.
         GALE WARNING...125 140 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 10