Storm Warning 220, NWS Anchorage, AK

658 
FZAK52 PAFC 021534 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
730 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

UPDATED ZONE 150 160

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030000-
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH WED. A
WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING THIS AFTERNOON AND STALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WED NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW 430 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON MOVES TO 160 NM WEST OF ADAK AT 977 MB THU
MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-030000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
730 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
730 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT...STRONGEST W OF TOGIAK. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-030000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-030000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-030000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT BERING SIDE...8 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...BERING SIDE NE WIND 30 KT. PACIFIC SIDE W WIND 30 KT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-030000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-030000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. W OF SEGUAM ISLAND
S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-030000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE NOV 2 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT QUITE WELL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER TODAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING AND DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THE EC
AND GFS COME TOGETHER ONCE THINGS SETTLE INTO 2 SYSTEMS DOMINATING
THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND OF
ALASKA. THIS HAS BROUGHT COLD AIR TO THE STATE WITH A 190KT JET
WORKING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS WILL ACT TO DIG
THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. SOME
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVE
A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...A 960 LOW IS WORKING UP THE COAST WITH GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS. GOOD GAP WINDS THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH GAPS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE KENAI PENINSULA
BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PRECIPITATION
WILL WORK UP THE COAST TONIGHT AND CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LIFTS INLAND. OVER THE WEST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA. IFR TO VFR CHANGING
CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY IN THIS FLOW.

THE JET CORE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE. THIS JET CORE WILL ACT TO SWING THE TROUGH EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE MAINLAND. THE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL WITH THE JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE
WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. COLD AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST
TO SWING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF ANCHORAGE. ANCHORAGE TO SEE
SOME SNOW TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECTING 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HILLSIDE. IF THE SURFACE TEMP
HOVERS AROUND FREEZING MAY NOT SEE ANY ACCUM ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN
AGAIN. THE LOW WILL LIFT INLAND TUESDAY WITH A BREAK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG LOW ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA. STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AN ACTIVE FRONT
TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE HURRICANE GUSTS FOR THE FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL. WARMER AIR MASS WITH THIS FRONT...SO
PRECIP AT THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL RAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE IT THROUGH THE EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH GAPS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
MAKING FOR SOME LOW CLOUD AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AS THE LOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY AND THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE MAINLAND BUT PICK UP OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY SHOWERS. GRADIENT WEAKENS WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE LOW INLAND
DISSIPATES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINING FOR ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS.

BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE EAST AS A FRONT MOVES TO SHEMYA TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AT FIRST. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CENTERS WRAPPING
AROUND EACH OTHER NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EC AND GFS NOT IN GOOD TIMING FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FLOW CHANGES FROM MORE MERIDIONAL TODAY TO MORE
ZONAL SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY 2 SYSTEMS BECOME DOMINANT FOR
THE WEATHER PATTERN. A LOW SITUATES ITSELF IN THE GULF WHILE THE
KAMCHATKA LOW DOES NOT MOVE MUCH. A REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE JET
CORE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE STACKED LOW WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 172 175 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 10