Gale Warning 913, NWS Anchorage, AK

791 
FZAK51 PAFC 020756 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1155 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021200-
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 964 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA AT 994 MB TUE MORNING. A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS 350 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATES NEAR KODIAK WED MORNING. A
980 MB MOVES 600 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD TUE NIGHT AND DEEPENS TO 955 MB
200 NM SOUTH OF SEWARD WED AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-021200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 29 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-021200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT TOWARDS MORNING. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-021200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 
FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-021200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-021200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-021200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT S
OF DANGEROUS CAPE DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-021200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1155 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT...LOCAL GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-021200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-021200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON NOV 1 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT QUITE WELL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER TODAY. AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE BERING AND DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THE EC
AND GFS COME TOGETHER ONCE THINGS SETTLE INTO 2 SYSTEMS DOMINATING
THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND OF
ALASKA. THIS HAS BROUGHT COLD AIR TO THE STATE WITH A 190KT JET
WORKING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS WILL ACT TO DIG
THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. SOME
RIDGING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVE
A BIT. AT THE SURFACE...A 960 LOW IS WORKING UP THE COAST WITH GALE
TO STORM FORCE WINDS. GOOD GAP WINDS THROUGH NORTH-SOUTH GAPS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE KENAI PENINSULA
BY TOMORROW MORNING AS THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PRECIPITATION
WILL WORK UP THE COAST TONIGHT AND CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TOMORROW AS
THE LOW LIFTS INLAND. OVER THE WEST...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA. IFR TO VFR CHANGING
CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY IN THIS FLOW.

THE JET CORE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE. THIS JET CORE WILL ACT TO SWING THE TROUGH EAST
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH AN UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER THE MAINLAND. THE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL WITH THE JET REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN A STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE
WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF THE
LOW. COLD AIR WILL HAVE SETTLED OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EAST OF THE ALEUTIAN RANGE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST
TO SWING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF ANCHORAGE. ANCHORAGE TO SEE
SOME SNOW TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECTING 1 TO 4
INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE HILLSIDE. IF THE SURFACE TEMP
HOVERS AROUND FREEZING MAY NOT SEE ANY ACCUM ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN
AGAIN. THE LOW WILL LIFT INLAND TUESDAY WITH A BREAK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT STRONG LOW ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVES INTO THE AREA. STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AN ACTIVE FRONT
TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE HURRICANE GUSTS FOR THE FRONT ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS WELL. WARMER AIR MASS WITH THIS FRONT...SO
PRECIP AT THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE ALL RAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL
MAKE IT THROUGH THE EAST-WEST AND NORTH-SOUTH GAPS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
MAKING FOR SOME LOW CLOUD AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AS THE LOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN BERING. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TUESDAY AND THE GULF LOW MOVES INLAND. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT OVER THE MAINLAND BUT PICK UP OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY SHOWERS. GRADIENT WEAKENS WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND THE LOW INLAND
DISSIPATES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINING FOR ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS.

BERING SEA...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN BERING WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING. THE AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE EAST AS A FRONT MOVES TO SHEMYA TUESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AT FIRST. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CENTERS WRAPPING
AROUND EACH OTHER NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EC AND GFS NOT IN GOOD TIMING FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FLOW CHANGES FROM MORE MERIDIONAL TODAY TO MORE
ZONAL SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY 2 SYSTEMS BECOME DOMINANT FOR
THE WEATHER PATTERN. A LOW SITUATES ITSELF IN THE GULF WHILE THE
KAMCHATKA LOW DOES NOT MOVE MUCH. A REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THE JET
CORE IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE STACKED LOW WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE...120 172 175 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 10