Storm Warning 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 30, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 30, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

830 
FZAK52 PAFC 301156
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310000-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 975 MB LOW OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVES TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
AT 986 MB BY MON MORNING. A 969 MB LOW 160 NM NORTH OF ADAK IS
ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A 966 MB LOW
220 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI INTENSIFIES TO 939 MB 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUN.

$$

PKZ150-310000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT IN AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-310000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM 
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-310000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-310000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-310000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-310000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...E WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 30 KT
INCREASING TO E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BERING SIDE...NE 50 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 11
FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-310000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
26 FT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-310000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 40 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...18 FT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-310000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NORTH 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 29, 12:40 PM AKDT, 15 hours 20 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJOR LOW WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO ALASKA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
IT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE REMNANTS
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ARE NOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE NOW OVERHEAD FROM ANCHORAGE
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS VERY SLOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TO THE NORTHEASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. THERE IS THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING TRACKING EASTWARD AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE BIG STORY
FOR TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A MAJOR NORTH
PACIFIC STORM. THERE IS A 200 KT JET WHICH HEADS STRAIGHT OUT OF
ASIA AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW RIGHT UNDERNEATH THIS JET AT AROUND 44N 170E. MEANWHILE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF RUSSIA WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. ALL
OF THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM WILL INITIALLY BE FELT
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH A EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN BOMBING
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF AROUND 55 MB
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 940 MB. THERE ARE THEN
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SLOWER TRACK AND ENSEMBLES (INCLUDING
GFS) SUPPORT THE FASTER TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VERY DEEP
LOW WILL UP WIND FORECASTS OUT WEST AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH.
WILL THEN TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS THE LOW
HEADS TO THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION SUPPLYING SOME DOWNWARD MOTION ALOFT BETWEEN EXITING
SHORT-WAVE AND ONE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE WILL
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO COASTAL AREAS. THE MEGA LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GULF EARLY SUNDAY
WITH CONDITIONS HEADING DOWNHILL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ONCE IT GETS INTO
THE GULF SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE IMPACTS ON SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR
PACIFIC STORM PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND MEAN FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH STORM EXPECTED TO BOMB JUST SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THIS WITH NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE GOING THAT STRONG.
THE STORM WILL TRACK QUICKLY TO THE EAST SO WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP A SHOWERY REGIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO BECOME FAIRLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE GULF STORM DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM TRACK WILL B
E FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA...ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND OVER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...150 165 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.