Storm Warning 206, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 29, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 30, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

656 
FZAK52 PAFC 292302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301200-
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW 85 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB 150 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ADAK FRI NIGHT AND
THEN BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW TO THE SOUTH. A 994 MB LOW 
475 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL INTENSIFY TO 941 MB AS IT MOVES TO 
280 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUN.

$$

PKZ150-301200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-301200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-301200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ165-301200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

PKZ180-301200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.   

$$

PKZ170-301200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.SAT...BERING SIDE...SE WIND 35 KT. PACIFIC SIDE...SE WIND 45 KT
BECOMING E 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BERING SIDE...NE 55 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS
10 FT BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-301200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-301200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-301200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-301200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-301200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.   

$$

PKZ179-301200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT
SUBSIDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 29, 12:40 PM AKDT, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKDT FRI OCT 29 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJOR LOW WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO ALASKA THE LAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AS
IT SITS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE REMNANTS
OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ARE NOW OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE NOW OVERHEAD FROM ANCHORAGE
TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND IS VERY SLOW TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...AREAS OF SNOW CONTINUE FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
TO THE NORTHEASTERN SUSITNA VALLEY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT NICELY
BEHIND THIS TROUGH. THERE IS THEN ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING TRACKING EASTWARD AND BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE BIG STORY
FOR TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT WILL BECOME A MAJOR NORTH
PACIFIC STORM. THERE IS A 200 KT JET WHICH HEADS STRAIGHT OUT OF
ASIA AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW RIGHT UNDERNEATH THIS JET AT AROUND 44N 170E. MEANWHILE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING OUT OF RUSSIA WITH ARCTIC AIR
BEGINNING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. ALL
OF THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM WILL INITIALLY BE FELT
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND ALASKA PENINSULA
WITH A EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY ON IN BOMBING
OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WITH AN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF AROUND 55 MB
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 940 MB. THERE ARE THEN
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE LOW HEADS TO THE GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH ITS SLOWER TRACK AND ENSEMBLES (INCLUDING
GFS) SUPPORT THE FASTER TRACK. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VERY DEEP
LOW WILL UP WIND FORECASTS OUT WEST AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH.
WILL THEN TREND HEAVILY TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS THE LOW
HEADS TO THE GULF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION SUPPLYING SOME DOWNWARD MOTION ALOFT BETWEEN EXITING
SHORT-WAVE AND ONE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG TO FORM TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE WILL
THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO COASTAL AREAS. THE MEGA LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GULF EARLY SUNDAY
WITH CONDITIONS HEADING DOWNHILL OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ONCE IT GETS INTO
THE GULF SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE IMPACTS ON SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN DRY OUT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR
PACIFIC STORM PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND MEAN FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WITH STORM EXPECTED TO BOMB JUST SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN WINDS WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SMALL AREAS OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
CONSISTENCY IN THIS WITH NEXT MODEL RUN BEFORE GOING THAT STRONG.
THE STORM WILL TRACK QUICKLY TO THE EAST SO WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP A SHOWERY REGIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO BECOME FAIRLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE GULF STORM DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM TRACK WILL B
E FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST AREA...ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND OVER TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE
WHETHER ANY OF THESE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...155 170 172 175 176.
         GALE WARNING...150 165 171.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.