Storm Warning 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

280 
FZAK51 PAFC 180405 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
805 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

UPDATED 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181200-
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A LARGE 976 MB LOW CENTERED 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MOVES TO 90 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA AT 984 MB MON MORNING BEFORE MOVING INLAND MON
AFTERNOON. A 977 MB LOW 130 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON MORNING MOVES
TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK AT 994 MB TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-181200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 25 KT
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-181200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-181200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ISLAND.
RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-181200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-181200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 10 KT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 3 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181200-
KACHEMAK BAY
805 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
530 AM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER BRISTOL BAY COVERS MUCH OF THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
ALASKA. THIS LOW IS DRAWING IN DRY COLD AIR FROM SIBERIA WHICH IS
BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL JET COVERS
MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH A JET STREAK THAT IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BERING. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE DOWNWARD
STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO FEED DRY STABLE AIR DOWNWARDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE. A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST BERING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.AT THE SURFACE...A WELL-WRAPPED MATURE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER
AROUND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. IT HAS NOW PASSED ITS PEAK INTENSITY
AND IS NOW AT 966 MB. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS LOW WILL
DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. ITS
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IS APPROACHING THE GULF COAST AND IS
SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING AROUND THE
BRISTOL BAY LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND GROW TO BE THE DOMINANT LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME PREDICTING THE POSITION OF THE
COMPLEX PROMINENT LOW AS IT WOBBLES AROUND IN THE BERING. THIS HAS
MADE IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING ISSUES OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA REGARDING THE TRACK OF SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE
0Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR THIS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST BERING LOW HAS BEEN
BRINGING RAIN AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST AND
WESTERN COOK INLET OVERNIGHT WITH A DOWNSLOPE HOLE OVER EAST COOK
INLET. THIS FRONT HAS GENERATED GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS ALONG THE COAST AS
IT APPROACHES. RAIN AND SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THESE AREAS SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND.  MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOWNSLOPED THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE BERING
LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST. STEADY RAIN WILL ESPECIALLY FALL ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW TRACKS RIGHT OVER THE AKPEN SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS LOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
AKPEN...PARTICULARLY THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE LOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE BERING INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE BERING LOW.  ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE JET IS ACROSS THE
OBSERVATION SPARSE REGION OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUOY 46073 HAS
REPORTED PEAK WINDS UP TO 58 KT THIS MORNING WHICH CORRELATES WELL
WITH MODEL PREDICTION. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
EAST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEST OF DUTCH
HARBOR. STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EAST ALEUTIANS AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE JET STREAM
WILL CONTINUE TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 185 AND 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 170 172 413.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 120 125 130 155 171 175 176 179 180 185
          352 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN OCT 10