Gale Warning 837, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT SUN OCT 17 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVED SOUTH TOWARD UNIMAK ISLAND. GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE SOUTH
AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW COVERED MOST OF THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. AN AREA OF STORM FORCE WINDS
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT. A WEATHER
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT HAS BECOME
STATIONARY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOWS IN
THE GULF AND THE NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING THE BERING SEA FROM THE WEST.
THEY ALL CURVE THE BERING SEA LOW EAST, JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN TURN IT NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE COOK INLET MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...THE RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA WILL BECOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY MONDAY AS THE GULF LOW SWINGS
NORTHWEST INTO THE COOK INLET. THIS WILL PUSH SOME OF THE SHOWERS
INTO THE SHOWERS INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST BERING MOVE SOUTH, THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS COME UNDER AN NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS MOVING A
DRIER, COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER
KUSKOKWIM DELTA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH MONDAY
THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

BERING SEA...THE AREAS OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING TUESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT
FORMING NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY. RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS PRECEDE THE FRONT ACROSS THE BERING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE EAST AND STALL OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
UNDER A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
BERING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE GULF
BY THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 170 172
         GALES 120 155 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 10