Storm Warning 193, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 16, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 16, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

304 
FZAK52 PAFC 161159
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170000-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 MB LOW 170 NM EAST OF SAINT PAUL MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND
POSITION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR KING COVE AT
970 MB SUN AFTERNOON AND TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF KING COVE AT 975 MB
LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 
FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-170000-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. WIND 
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT SW 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-170000-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-170000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-170000-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-170000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT
BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-170000-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-170000-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 31 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-170000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-170000-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-170000-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-170000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 15, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE STORM IN THE
BERING SEA WITH THE ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE NAM HANDLING OF
THE LOW. THE LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY HIT A WALL IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BUT THE NAM IS DANCING THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF THE OTHER
MODELS BEFORE SENDING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE NAM
HAS HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN OTHER MODELS SO THAT
SOLUTION IS A BIT SUSPECT.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING MORE DIFFICULTY DEALING WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND MOVING TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN MODELS. THE UKMET AND NAM BRING THE
LOW IN THE THE 960S WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER.
WHOLE STRONGER THE NAM AND UKMET ARE HUNDREDS OF MILES APART ON THEIR
TRACK BUT THE UKMET AND GFS TRACKS ARE SIMILAR. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE WEEKEND TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHILE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM COMES OFF
JAPAN AND HEADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE
WEAKENING. THIS PUTS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IN THE UPPER
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM AND THUS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG WEATHER MAKER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHERE
THERE IS PRECIPITATION. AN ASPECT OF THIS STORM THAT IS A LITTLE
UNUSUAL IS THAT IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ALMOST A DAY
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
PRESSURE IN THE MID 960S MB. THE IMPACT IS THAT THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...ALEUTIANS...AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN STRONG
WINDS THAT ENTIRE TIME. BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WILL SEE WINDS COME DOWN AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS THINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SETTLED. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOW IN THE GULF THAT IS CAUSING
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS ANCHORAGE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LARGE COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY GIVE COMPUTER MODELS
FITS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 171 172 175 176
180 185.
        STORM 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.