Storm Warning 192, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Oct 16, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT (12:00 UTC)

Expired

Oct 16, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

580 
FZAK51 PAFC 161148
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170000-
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH
GULF COAST THIS EVENING...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUN. A 970 MB LOW
MOVES NORTHWEST TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-170000-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR THE
COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170000-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170000-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S OF SEAL ISLAND. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170000-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-170000-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. E OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170000-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170000-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT BY LATE MORNING THEN SUBSIDING TO 9 FT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170000-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT EXCEPT 6 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170000-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Oct 15, 4:00 PM AKDT, 12 hours earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI OCT 15 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE STORM IN THE
BERING SEA WITH THE ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST BEING THE NAM HANDLING OF
THE LOW. THE LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY HIT A WALL IN THE EASTERN BERING
SEA BUT THE NAM IS DANCING THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF THE OTHER
MODELS BEFORE SENDING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE NAM
HAS HAD LESS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN OTHER MODELS SO THAT
SOLUTION IS A BIT SUSPECT.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING MORE DIFFICULTY DEALING WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
THAT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND MOVING TO
THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN MODELS. THE UKMET AND NAM BRING THE
LOW IN THE THE 960S WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER.
WHOLE STRONGER THE NAM AND UKMET ARE HUNDREDS OF MILES APART ON THEIR
TRACK BUT THE UKMET AND GFS TRACKS ARE SIMILAR. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER THE WEEKEND TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE IS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WHILE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE 250 MB JET STREAM COMES OFF
JAPAN AND HEADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BEFORE
WEAKENING. THIS PUTS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IN THE UPPER
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAM AND THUS THE LOW IS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BIG WEATHER MAKER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA. LOOK FOR RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHERE
THERE IS PRECIPITATION. AN ASPECT OF THIS STORM THAT IS A LITTLE
UNUSUAL IS THAT IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ALMOST A DAY
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING A CENTRAL
PRESSURE IN THE MID 960S MB. THE IMPACT IS THAT THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...ALEUTIANS...AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN STRONG
WINDS THAT ENTIRE TIME. BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT WILL SEE WINDS COME DOWN AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS THINGS ARE A BIT MORE
SETTLED. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LOW IN THE GULF THAT IS CAUSING
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS ANCHORAGE. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PULL
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...A LARGE COMPLEX LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
SEA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY GIVE COMPUTER MODELS
FITS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 171 172 175 176
180 185.
        STORM 170 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 10

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every storm warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.