Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 10, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jul 11, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

782 
FZAK52 PAFC 102303
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111200-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MON. A PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 75 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK 
MON AFTERNOON AT 1008 MB.

$$

PKZ150-111200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-111200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-111200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT FROM ATKA EAST IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-111200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jul 10, 12:40 PM AKDT, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1240 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
NOW POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRODUCING
AREAS OF RAIN FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND. MOST
NOTABLE IS A STRONG FAIRLY CONCENTRIC VORT-MAX ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF RAIN TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION LATER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
A COASTAL JET PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM AROUND CAPE SUCKLING
INTO INTO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT DON'T EXPECT THIS
TO LAST LONG SINCE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DROPPED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND PICKED UP A SURFACE
LOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NO LONGER DIGGING...
SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH POSITION
OF LOWS...BUT THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE FAR ENOUGH OFF TO BE CALLED
AN OUTLIER. THEREFORE...PREFER AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREAS THAT CAN EXPECT THE
STEADIEST RAIN ARE THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND THEN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE INLAND. THE COMBINATION
OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN THE
THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/SOUTH TO
WEST ANCHORAGE/THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY INTO PALMER/AND ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY
AND PROGRESS TO SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. IT MIGHT NOT BE AS CLEAR
AS FRIDAY STARTED OUT...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT STORM WHICH IS CURRENTLY DOWN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
WILL TRACK TO AROUND KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT...SO CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENETRED OVER THE KAMCHTKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN RUSSIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BLOCKING ANY STORMS FROM MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND MAINTAINING BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
BERING. THE LOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY
AND THERE WILL BREAKS OF NICE WEATHER IN BETWEEN. THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL EXIT BY
MID WEEK. THERE IS THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WHETHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY FRIDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF NICE WEATHER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING BEHIND THE RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. IF THIS IS CORRECT WE COULD BE HEADING BACK INTO A MORE
STAGNANT PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 10

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2010Every small craft advisory in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.