Gale Warning 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jul 10, 2010, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Jul 11, 2010, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 102358
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111200-
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 999 MB LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 40 NM SOUTH OF 
MIDDLETON ISLAND SAT NIGHT AT 1004 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE AS 
IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR ICY BAY SUN AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC LOW 
WILL TRACK TO 75 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK MON AFTERNOON AT 1008 MB.

$$

PKZ120-111200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 30 KT S AND W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-111200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-111200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
30 KT EARLY EVENING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT
IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT
EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-111200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN... W WIND 25 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND EXCEPT SW WIND 15 KT N OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 3 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT EXCEPT 2 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-111200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jul 10, 12:40 PM AKDT, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1240 PM AKDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS
NOW POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND CONTINUES
TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NUMEROUS WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRODUCING
AREAS OF RAIN FROM THE EASTERN BERING TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND. MOST
NOTABLE IS A STRONG FAIRLY CONCENTRIC VORT-MAX ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF RAIN TO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION LATER
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
A COASTAL JET PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS FROM AROUND CAPE SUCKLING
INTO INTO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT DON'T EXPECT THIS
TO LAST LONG SINCE THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS DROPPED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND PICKED UP A SURFACE
LOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NO LONGER DIGGING...
SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH POSITION
OF LOWS...BUT THE NAM IS THE ONLY ONE FAR ENOUGH OFF TO BE CALLED
AN OUTLIER. THEREFORE...PREFER AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE AREAS THAT CAN EXPECT THE
STEADIEST RAIN ARE THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW CENTER AND THEN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE INLAND. THE COMBINATION
OF A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN THE
THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM/SOUTH TO
WEST ANCHORAGE/THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY INTO PALMER/AND ALONG THE
COPPER RIVER. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SUNDAY
AND PROGRESS TO SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW. IT MIGHT NOT BE AS CLEAR
AS FRIDAY STARTED OUT...BUT SUBSIDENCE AND FLOW WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT STORM WHICH IS CURRENTLY DOWN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
WILL TRACK TO AROUND KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT...SO CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR MOST AREAS BY
TUESDAY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENETRED OVER THE KAMCHTKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN RUSSIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BLOCKING ANY STORMS FROM MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST AND MAINTAINING BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
BERING. THE LOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK SO SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICKLY
AND THERE WILL BREAKS OF NICE WEATHER IN BETWEEN. THE SYSTEM
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL EXIT BY
MID WEEK. THERE IS THEN SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WHETHER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINLAND WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY FRIDAY BRINGING
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF NICE WEATHER. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING BEHIND THE RIDGE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE. IF THIS IS CORRECT WE COULD BE HEADING BACK INTO A MORE
STAGNANT PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 10

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2010Every gale warning in 2010

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.