Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Anchorage, AK

115 
FZAK51 PAFC 101250 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA...CORRECTED 
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

CORRECTED ZONE 130.

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-110300-
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE ON SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 962 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN TO 968 MB AND MOVE TO 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-110300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-110300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-110300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-110300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-110300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 7 FT
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 6 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-110300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-110300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-110300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-110300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

631 
FZAK51 PAFC 110020
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 987 MB LOW 115 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HOMER AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A 964 MB LOW 275 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SITKINAK AT 974 MB FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DECREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT NEAR HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THRU MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. NE WIND 40 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
13 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NE WIND 35 KT
W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS 14 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED FEB 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE.
CURRENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. APPEARS THAT THE NAM/GFS/UKMET ALL ARE
CLUSTERING LOW CENTER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. SO AFTERNOON
PACKAGES WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A NAM/GFS BLEND IN THE SHORT
TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND AND EASTERN GULF MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA
WED. BROAD LOW COMPLEX OVER OVER THE ALEUTIANS SHIFTS EAST TO THE NE
PACIFIC A COLD AIR DIGS SOUTHEAST. BY FRI AFTERNOON...A BROAD CUT-OFF
LOW COMPLEX IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGE AT THAT TIME
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA TO OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND THEN SW TO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK
EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SURFACE...LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SAT PICTURES SHOWS SEVERAL OPEN WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE SLOW NORTH AND EAST MOVEMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED GAP
AND GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STRONG WIND CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY  FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD
CONFINE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EASTERLY EXPOSURES OF THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL WITH DOWN-SLOPING INLAND. WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE
GULF LIKELY TO PROVIDE A MIX OR RAIN ALONG THE COAST. DIMINISHING
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARE EXPECTED WED. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL AS A DEVELOPING STORM
CENTER MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK FRI.

LOW CENTER ENTERING BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO 30S OVER
MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD. SNOW OR A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN BRISTOL
BAY. COLD AIR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON OVER THE DELTA
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING OVER
THE DELTA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ENDING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WARM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SW ALASKA INTO WED. OLD LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WED EVENING AND WEAKENS. SO WILL
SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER SW ALASKA AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT. RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE SW MAINLAND WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155 AND 125
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 125 127 130 140 141 160 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10