Gale Warning 134, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE.
CURRENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. APPEARS THAT THE NAM/GFS/UKMET ALL ARE
CLUSTERING LOW CENTER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. SO AFTERNOON
PACKAGES WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARD A NAM/GFS BLEND IN THE SHORT
TERM.

.UPPER LEVELS...
RIDGE OVER THE MAINLAND AND EASTERN GULF MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA
WED. BROAD LOW COMPLEX OVER OVER THE ALEUTIANS SHIFTS EAST TO THE NE
PACIFIC A COLD AIR DIGS SOUTHEAST. BY FRI AFTERNOON...A BROAD CUT-OFF
LOW COMPLEX IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES ROTATING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGE AT THAT TIME
EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CANADA TO OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND THEN SW TO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK
EXTENDS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.SURFACE...LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND SAT PICTURES SHOWS SEVERAL OPEN WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND CONTINUE SLOW NORTH AND EAST MOVEMENT
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED GAP
AND GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STRONG WIND CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY  FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD
CONFINE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EASTERLY EXPOSURES OF THE
GULF/SOUTHCENTRAL WITH DOWN-SLOPING INLAND. WARMING TEMPS ACROSS THE
GULF LIKELY TO PROVIDE A MIX OR RAIN ALONG THE COAST. DIMINISHING
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARE EXPECTED WED. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL AS A DEVELOPING STORM
CENTER MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK FRI.

LOW CENTER ENTERING BRISTOL BAY IS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO 30S OVER
MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND BLOWING SNOW HAS BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD. SNOW OR A MIX CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT IN BRISTOL
BAY. COLD AIR AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON OVER THE DELTA
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING OVER
THE DELTA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ENDING ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WARM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS SW ALASKA INTO WED. OLD LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WED EVENING AND WEAKENS. SO WILL
SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER SW ALASKA AND
THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT. RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW
OVER THE SW MAINLAND WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155 AND 125
MARINE...STORM 120
         GALE 125 127 130 140 141 160 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 10