Gale Warning 939, NWS Anchorage, AK

474 
FZAK51 PAFC 110456 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

AMENDED ZONE 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 955 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 976 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ON FRI.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
700 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST WIND 45 KT EXCEPT EAST WIND 60 KT EAST OF CAPE
CLEARE. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT NEAR
HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS 23
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT EXCEPT N 25 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
11 FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

275 
FZAK51 PAFC 110730 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

AMENDED ALL ZONES EXCEPT 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-111500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 955 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL WEAKEN TO 976 MB AS IT 
MOVES TO 110 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ON FRI.

$$

PKZ120-111500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...EAST WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-111500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-111500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-111500-
PASSAGE CANAL
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-111500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT EXCEPT 16 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-111500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-111500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-111500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT EXCEPT N 40 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 11
FT EXCEPT 7 FT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-111500-
KACHEMAK BAY
1030 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1240 PM AKST WED NOV 10 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS A MAJOR STORM
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS
LOW NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BERING. A STRONG JET STREAK ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS FEEDING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES COLD AIR IS ALREADY WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE
CENTER AND THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDING. WINDS ARE RAPIDLY INCREASING
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS HAS ERODED
MUCH OF THIS BUT STRATUS REMAINS QUITE EXTENSIVE OVER INLAND
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. OUT WEST
CONDITIONS ARE VERY QUIET WITH JUST A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE MAJOR PACIFIC
LOW BUT THERE ARE KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL BUT IS FARTHER WEST THAN ANY OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN
GFS SOLUTION HAS NOW TRENDED WAY TO THE EAST. THE NAM/UKMET/GEM
ARE ALL CLOSE TOGETHER IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
A LOOK AT GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWS VERY LITTLE VARIATION IN POSITION.
ALSO...WITH AN INCREASING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THESE LOWS HAVE
A TENDENCY TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE...PREFER TO
GO WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GFS PERHPAS TEMPERED A BIT BY THE
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION OF THE NAM/UKMET/GEM. THE TRACK WILL HAVE
HUGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL.

MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH JET
RAPIDLY DRIVES INTO THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BLEND SEEMS
LIKE A NICE COMPROMISE. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT AT YET ANOTHER WEAK
LOW FOLLOWING THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR APART
AS IT REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST. THEREFORE...DON'T EXPECT THE
STORM FORCE WINDS TO PENETRATE INLAND OR INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE OTHER IMPORTANT AFFECT OF THIS IS THAT THE MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
INITIALLY BE HELD OUT OVER THE GULF SO THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND REGIONS THIS TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL MAKE PROGRESS INLAND
THURSDAY...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW CENTER WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. AS IT APPROACHES THE KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ANOTHER SLUG OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE IN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO TAKE THE LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
TOWARD COOK INLET. THIS TRACK WILL RESULT IN STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
FROM CORDOVA TO EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND TRACK INLAND...SO MOST
PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP. WITH LOTS OF WARM
AIR THIS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW.

RIGHT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODELS INDICATE A SHORT-WAVE MOVING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING TO
SOUTHCENTRAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING...SO EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIP TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WARM SO THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A VARIETY
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO ALL RAIN.
FURTHER NORTH FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO KUSKOKWIM DELTA THE
ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE BERING SEA FOR THE PAST
WEEK OR MORE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK PRETTY WEAK AS THE LOW
OPENS INTO A WAVE...SO JUST EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THIS MOVES
THROUGH.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A SYSTEM SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC CREATING A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT MAJOR STORMS
STAY AWAY FROM THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. INSTEAD A COLD ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL SET-UP RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHERLIES AND SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LARGE VARIATIONS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
BUILDING OF A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO THE FIRST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK OVER MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120 130 132 138 140 150.
         GALE WARNING...125 141 155 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 10