Gale Warning 79, NWS Anchorage, AK

223 
FZAK52 PAFC 271253
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280300-
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THROUGH
FRIDAY.  STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A 979 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 320 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK
ON THURSDAY MORNING. IT WILL WEAKEN TO 993 MB AND MOVE TO 75 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK BY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-280300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-280300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-280300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-280300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-280300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-280300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-280300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-280300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST WED JAN 27 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZED WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS RELATIVELY POOR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ON THE WAY. BERING SEA RIDGE SPLITS WITH
HIGH CENTER MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THU AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER THE NW MAINLAND WED...MOVES SW...AND SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THU AND FRI. WARM AIR DRAWN NORTH AS NORTH PACIFIC
LOW INTENSIFIES AND PUSHES EAST WILL BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US AND CANADA WED AND THU. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF AND THE MAINLAND WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK.

SURFACE
.EAST...CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL LOW CENTERS EXTENDING  FROM
A MAJOR LOW CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC TO RELATIVELY MINOR LOWS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAKER GULF CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY GALE OR BELOW
WINDS OVER COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH THESE WAVES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE GULF. A TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED THE NE PACIFIC STORM WILL TRACK
NORTH TO EAST OF KODIAK WED NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER
WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN COASTAL MARINE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY MARINE AREAS 120 AND THE BARREN ISLANDS. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER WILL DIMINISH THU THROUGH FRI AS CENTER
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
CONFINED TO THE GULF WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND BRISTOL
THU AND FRI.

.WEST...BRISK NE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER SW ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE
RUSSIAN HIGH WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND WARMING INTO BRISTOL BAY AND SW ALASKA THU AND FRI.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING SEA THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW VIGOROUS
THE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL BE. MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS CORRESPONDINGLY
CONSERVATIVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 AND 130. GALES 127 132 138 140 150 179 180 351
AND 352.

RMC JAN 10