Gale Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE JAN 26 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZED WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS RELATIVELY POOR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ON THE WAY. BERING SEA RIDGE SPLITS WITH
HIGH CENTER MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN THU AS A LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER THE NW MAINLAND WED...MOVES SW...AND SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THU AND FRI. WARM AIR DRAWN NORTH AS NORTH PACIFIC
LOW INTENSIFIES AND PUSHES EAST WILL BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
US AND CANADA WED AND THU. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF AND THE MAINLAND WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR AND INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK.

SURFACE
.EAST...CURRENT SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL LOW CENTERS EXTENDING  FROM
A MAJOR LOW CENTER OVER THE NE PACIFIC TO RELATIVELY MINOR LOWS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAKER GULF CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY GALE OR BELOW
WINDS OVER COASTAL MARINE AREAS WITH THESE WAVES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE GULF. A TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED THE NE PACIFIC STORM WILL TRACK
NORTH TO EAST OF KODIAK WED NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER
WILL PRODUCE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS IN COASTAL MARINE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY MARINE AREAS 120 AND THE BARREN ISLANDS. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CENTER WILL DIMINISH THU THROUGH FRI AS CENTER
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. PRECIPITATION INITIALLY
CONFINED TO THE GULF WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND BRISTOL
THU AND FRI.

.WEST...BRISK NE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER SW ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE
RUSSIAN HIGH WEAKENS AND A WEAK TROUGH SETS UP OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE
WEAKENING OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND WARMING INTO BRISTOL BAY AND SW ALASKA THU AND FRI.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BERING SEA THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW VIGOROUS
THE EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL BE. MODELS DIVERGE ENOUGH FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THE FORECAST WAS CORRESPONDINGLY
CONSERVATIVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 AND 130. GALES 127 132 138 140 150 179 180 351
AND 352.

RMC JAN 10