Gale Warning 649, NWS Anchorage, AK

043 
FZAK52 PAFC 120137 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
537 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

CORRECTED ZONE 165

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121200-
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN BERING THROUGH SUN
MORNING. A 994 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA STRENGTHENS TO 985 MB
300 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA.
$$

PKZ150-121200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-121200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT S WIND TO 10
KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT S 15 KT
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-121200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SE TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 160W. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 10 KT E OF 160W. 
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ165-121200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS
OF FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT...EXCEPT TO 15 KT E OF PORT
MOLLER. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT E OF PORT MOLLER. HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-121200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT S AND E OF CAPE
MENDENHALL. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SE
WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON S AND E OF CAPE
MENDENHALL. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-121200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
$$

PKZ171-121200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN. SEAS 5
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
$$

PKZ172-121200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. SEGUAM ISLAND E...SE WIND 25
KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON W
OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-121200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT S WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING E OF 180.
SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-121200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-121200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E...SE WIND
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
$$

PKZ179-121200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT SEP 11 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO BARTER ISLAND
THIS MORNING WITH CLOSED LOWS NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AND
JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM A DECAYED WEATHER FRONT IS OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND REMNANTS OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS UPPER LOW IS
TAKING THE FORM OF CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FAST MOVING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AND REACH EASTERN RUSSIA SUNDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE WEST
COAST MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH THE ALEUTIANS BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK ALONG THE CHAIN.
MEANWHILE MOST OF THE MAINLAND AND GULF WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE GFS UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE BLEND IS THE EC AND HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUN. WIND AND
RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN
AND THE WEST COAST OF AK ON MON. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE...
WITH FOG AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUILDS INTO THE ALEUTIANS INTO TUE. THE
NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TUE NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GALES LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE DECAYING FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND MODERATE WIND
THAT DISSIPATE LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIES OUT THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RAIN AND WIND DIMINISH ALONG THE ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MAINLAND AK DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 170 179 STORMS 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS SEP 10