Gale Warning 592, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO BARTER ISLAND
THIS MORNING WITH CLOSED LOWS NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS AND
JUST EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS OVER MOST OF THE BERING AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM A DECAYED WEATHER FRONT IS OVER SOUTHWEST AK AND REMNANTS OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS UPPER LOW IS
TAKING THE FORM OF CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FAST MOVING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING
AND REACH EASTERN RUSSIA SUNDAY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE WEST
COAST MON EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH THE ALEUTIANS BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK ALONG THE CHAIN.
MEANWHILE MOST OF THE MAINLAND AND GULF WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE GFS UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE BLEND IS THE EC AND HPC GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND SUN. WIND AND
RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUN
AND THE WEST COAST OF AK ON MON. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE...
WITH FOG AND DRY CONDITIONS...BUILDS INTO THE ALEUTIANS INTO TUE. THE
NEXT NORTHERN PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN TUE NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND GALES LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON WHEN THE DECAYING FRONT BRINGS RAIN AND MODERATE WIND
THAT DISSIPATE LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIES OUT THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RAIN AND WIND DIMINISH ALONG THE ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MAINLAND AK DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 170 179 STORMS 172 175 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS SEP 10