Gale Warning 526, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AND GFS INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SURFACE LOW OVER SAND POINT THIS EVENING BUT THEN THEN GFS DEEPENS 8
MB OR SO AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SINCE POSITIONING IS GOOD WOULD SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE PRESSURE
BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS.
A SECOND LOW SOUTHWEST OF ATTU SATURDAY MORNING IS PROGED FAIRLY
CLOSELY BY BOTH OF THESE MODELS...EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER UNMAK ISLAND
LATE SUN NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY ENERGY IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
GULF OF ALASKA HIGH ON WHICH A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BRUNT OF WINDS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW THAT MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDE WILL BE WEST OF 153W
BUT SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO COOK INLET AS WELL BUT TIMING IS
INEXACT.  LOTS OF RAIN AND WIND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IN ADDITION TO MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS. LOOKS AS
A SHORT LIVED BREAK ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES EARLY
MONDAY.
IN SOUTHCENTRAL PRIMARILY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOME SUN
BREAKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...GFS INDICATING YET ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP THE AK
PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING ONSHORE NEAR TOGIAK
MONDAY NIGHT...MORE RAIN FOR MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL MON PM THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 150 155 160 185 132 130 138
FIRE WEATHER...FINISHED FOR THE SEASON.

JMP AUG 10