Gale Warning 42, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN THEIR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND ALIGNMENT WITH EACH OTHER. NO REAL ISSUES OF NOTE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NAM IS  BIT OF AN OUTLIER ON THE LOW MOVING
SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND BUT THAT IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THIS
PATTERN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE AXIS OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF THE
CONTINENTAL US THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN CURVES WESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. A SMALLER NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
ALSO IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS SKEWED
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS CURRENTLY PINWHEELING AROUND THIS
MAIN LOW.
A STRONG 200 KT JET IS RUNNING DUE WEST TO EAST OUT OF ASIA ALONG THE
35N PARALLEL BEFORE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS IS PLACING THE UPPER LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A 987 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
CURRENTLY FILLING AND MOVING WESTWARD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INLAND VERY FAR. KODIAK WILL GET BACK INTO THE
RAIN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES WESTWARD. THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY IN OFF SHORE FLOW. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE AN EASTERLY SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE BERING
WILL REMAIN THERE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF THE
GULF BY SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS/EZ JAN 10