Gale Warning 41, NWS Anchorage, AK

990 
FZAK52 PAFC 091236
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100300-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 956 MB STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE TO 390 NM EAST OF SAND POINT ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 964 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN POSITION. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT
OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ150-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-100300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-100300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-100300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-100300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DURING THE
MORNING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-100300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-100300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-100300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-100300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
10 FT. 


$$

PKZ179-100300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 9 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI JAN 8 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN THEIR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND ALIGNMENT WITH EACH OTHER. NO REAL ISSUES OF NOTE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NAM IS  BIT OF AN OUTLIER ON THE LOW MOVING
SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND BUT THAT IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THIS
PATTERN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE AXIS OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OUT OF THE
CONTINENTAL US THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THEN CURVES WESTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. A SMALLER NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
ALSO IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS SKEWED
ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AXIS WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS CURRENTLY PINWHEELING AROUND THIS
MAIN LOW.
A STRONG 200 KT JET IS RUNNING DUE WEST TO EAST OUT OF ASIA ALONG THE
35N PARALLEL BEFORE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS IS PLACING THE UPPER LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN A LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE...A 987 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS
CURRENTLY FILLING AND MOVING WESTWARD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXTEND INLAND VERY FAR. KODIAK WILL GET BACK INTO THE
RAIN IN THE EASTERLY FLOW AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES WESTWARD. THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE BERING AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY IN OFF SHORE FLOW. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE AN EASTERLY SHORT WAVE
WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH IN THE BERING
WILL REMAIN THERE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF THE
GULF BY SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 160 165 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS/EZ JAN 10