Gale Warning 366, NWS Anchorage, AK

959 
FZAK52 PAFC 201120
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-210200-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 MB LOW 75 NM NORTH OF NIKOLSKI WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB 60 NM
NORTH OF BETHEL WED NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR SAINT
GEORGE TUE EVENING AND BECOME A 1001 MB LOW NEAR 45 NM SOUTH OF CAPE
NEWENHAM WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON FROM CHIRIKOF
ISLAND S. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WIND 20
KT N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-210200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-210200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO
4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-210200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT
BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-210200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT N OF CAPE MENDENHALL. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF CAPE
MENDENHALL. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...23 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-210200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-210200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT IN THE MORNING E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-210200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-210200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. 

$$

PKZ179-210200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 20 2010

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
351 PM AKDT MON APR 19 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUKON
STRETCHES WESTWARD MUCH OF NORTHEAST ALASKA...BUT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF SEWARD
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS DISSIPATING WHILE A DECENT
RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A
TROUGH REGION IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA.
A SHORT WAVE THAT DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND SUNDAY IS
MOVING ON SHORE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WAVE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.AT THE SURFACE..A 976 MB LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BRINGING WINDS AND SNOW. MEANWHILE SUNNY SKIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
SHORT TERM AND MATCH WELL WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES.THE NAM
WAS FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF A FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE REMNANTS OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
STEADY SHOWERS FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO CORDOVA. DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.SOUTHWEST...WHILE SUNNY SKIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND BRISTOL
BAY AND SOUTHEAST BERING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER WITHIN
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA
CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT DAY AND ARRIVE NEAR
BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...SNOW SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN BERING
INTO THE GULF...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AND GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 170 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN APR 10