Gale Warning 365, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
351 PM AKDT MON APR 19 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUKON
STRETCHES WESTWARD MUCH OF NORTHEAST ALASKA...BUT IT IS SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 450 MILES SOUTH OF SEWARD
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS DISSIPATING WHILE A DECENT
RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A
TROUGH REGION IS CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC
WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA.
A SHORT WAVE THAT DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND SUNDAY IS
MOVING ON SHORE IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WAVE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ON SHORE AND THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.AT THE SURFACE..A 976 MB LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BRINGING WINDS AND SNOW. MEANWHILE SUNNY SKIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
SHORT TERM AND MATCH WELL WITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES.THE NAM
WAS FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN DOMAIN DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF A FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE REMNANTS OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUE TO BRING
LIGHT RAIN FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
STEADY SHOWERS FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO CORDOVA. DOWNSLOPING WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.SOUTHWEST...WHILE SUNNY SKIES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND BRISTOL
BAY AND SOUTHEAST BERING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER WITHIN
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA
CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT DAY AND ARRIVE NEAR
BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE LOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AS A RESULT...SNOW SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN BERING
INTO THE GULF...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AND GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 170 175
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ELN APR 10