Gale Warning 332, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN APR 4 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A LARGE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A FAIRLY POTENT JET STREAK IS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND IS DIGGING INTO THE BASE
OF THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF. WITH SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHARPEN A BIT AS ITS WAVELENGTH DECREASES.
THIS...COMBINED WITH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVING IN EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASED CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY
PREFERRED THE NAM FOR ITS BETTER RESOLUTION IN HANDLING THE STACKED
LOW IN THE GULF OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS...THEN PREFERRED A
BLEND TOWARDS THE LATEST EUROPEAN (EC) MODEL RUN AFTERWARDS.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION PAST EARLY WEDNESDAY IS EXTREMELY
LOW GIVEN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT AGAIN THE EC WAS
PREFERRED WITH ITS SEEMINGLY MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEMS TO ENTER THE BERING SEA REGION FROM THE WEST BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STACKED
LOW...COMBINED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY DEFORMATION ZONE OR
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER COOK INLET REGION...WILL HELP BRING
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
TODAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
INTO THE COOK INLET REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES. BY MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MAT-SU VALLEY TO SEE A DECENT SHOT AT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...AND THESE COULD CONTINUE INTO LATE IN THE DAY
ON TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...WITH STEADY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIAN RANGE OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TODAY.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE STACKED LOW SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF REMAINS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA...A POTENT WEST-EAST JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO MOVE FAIRLY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THUS...CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS POINT IN TIME PAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN GENERAL...EXPECT TO SEE A
FAIRLY STRONG BUT TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVE RAPIDLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE BERING SEA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS...BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE BERING REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK. IN THE
EAST...GENERALLY EXPECT CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR IN THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...120 170 172
         HVY FRZG SPRY...165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC APR 10