Gale Warning 262, NWS Anchorage, AK

821 
FZAK52 PAFC 142328
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151400-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW AROUND 230 NM EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA 
WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER SIBERIA MON NIGHT. 
A STRONG FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY 
STATIONARY AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING AND ALEUTIANS 
SUN NIGHT AND WILL THEN WEAKEN THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ150-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-151400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-151400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT.  
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-151400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-151400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING EAST OF UNALASKA.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-151400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE EVENING. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-151400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-151400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-151400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-151400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT SUN MAR 14 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED OFF LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
KAMCHATKA THIS MORNING WITH STRONG RIDGES OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES ARE VERTICALLY STACKED OVER
SURFACE LOWS...WITH SURFACE HIGHS OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND EAST OF
THE ROCKIES. A SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
BERING RIDGE AND THE GULF LOW...CREATING PERSISTENT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE TIP OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WAVES OF ENERGY
MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW ARE ALSO BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING TO THE BERING. AT THAT TIME THE EC HAS THE
BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW WELL
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...WHICH THEN REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY MON NIGHT. THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
WEAKENS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE AND IS THEN
ABSORBED BY A SOUTHEAST AK LOW. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NAM/GFS IN
THE EARLY PERIODS...BLENDS TOWARD THE EC THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THEN
RELIES UPON HPC GUIDANCE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTH FLOW TO THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN TODAY...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT INTO MON. TUE NIGHT A SECOND FRONT WILL BRING EVEN WARMER AIR
TO THE SAME AREA...FOLLOWED WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU. WIND WILL DIMINISH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND EXTREME WIND
CHILLS WILL EASE BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SURGES OF RAIN AND SNOW TO COASTAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH TUE...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CROSSING INTO THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN TODAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INLAND THROUGH WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRI AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTHWEST AK. A WEATHER FRONT FROM A LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AK PEN
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF THU...BRINGING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO THE GULF
COAST WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

PUBLIC...181 BLIZZARD WARNING
MARINE...GALES 120 121 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 176 179
         185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 138 140 150 155 165 170 171
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 10